2024 CFB What Ifs: What if UF QB Graham Mertz never got hurt?
After Mertz's injury, freshman phenom DJ Lagway was thrust into the spotlight...and he helped save the Gators' season.
College football is a game of inches, split-second decisions and unpredictable twists that can alter the trajectory of an entire season. In this new offseason series, What Ifs, I’ll dive into the sliding door moments of the 2024 college football season—the plays, calls and decisions that could’ve changed everything.
I’ll explore how the alternate outcomes might have reshaped the College Football Playoff picture, conference standings, Heisman race and more.
What might have been? Let’s find out.
With 2:57 remaining in the third quarter of its mid-October rivalry game against Tennessee, Florida knew its season had reached a turning point.
The Gators weren’t even halfway through arguably the toughest schedule in college football history and already had a pair of losses to their name. In that moment, Florida found itself down three points on the road in Neyland Stadium and its sixth-year senior quarterback Graham Mertz just went down with what appeared to be a devastating injury. In the days that followed, news trickled out that Mertz had torn his ACL and that he’d officially be hanging up the cleats on his college career.
Mere minutes after Mertz was helped off the field that Saturday, all eyes were on true freshman quarterback DJ Lagway. Lagway, a former five-star recruit, has all the tools to be an elite college quarterback but was suddenly being thrust into an extremely tough spot.
Down 10-7 late in the third quarter, the Gators needed a spark and decided to let it rip. On the very first play, Lagway took the shotgun snap, faked a handoff and quickly scanned the field from right to left. A few seconds later, the true freshman uncorked a dart to his left—only for the route to be jumped and the pass intercepted by Tennessee defensive back Arion Carter.
It felt like an ominous start for the DJ Lagway era in Gainesville.
After throwing that initial interception, Lagway settled in and finished the game with nine completions for 98 yards and one interception. Florida eventually lost to rivals Tennessee 23-17 in overtime and fell to 3-3 on the year.
In the weeks that followed, Lagway and the Gators fought incredibly hard for hot-seat head coach Billy Napier. Florida responded well after the loss to Tennessee with a blowout victory over Kentucky but later dropped back-to-back road games against top-five opponents Georgia and Texas.
The Gators didn’t quit, though. Despite being just 4-5, Florida played with a different level of swagger and sprung a pair of monster upsets against No. 22 LSU and ninth-ranked Ole Miss. Lagway had some big throws in both games and finished with a combined stat line of 23/43, 406 yards, 3 touchdowns and one interception. The Gators then closed the regular season with a 20-point beatdown of in-state rivals Florida State.
That three-game close to the season saved Napier’s job and suddenly things look much sunnier in Gainesville.
What if Graham Mertz had never gotten hurt?
It’s difficult to say for certain, but I have a hard time believing that Florida would’ve beaten both LSU and Ole Miss with Mertz as the signal-caller.
Mertz was iffy earlier in the year and the Gators never possessed that top-end gear with Mertz like they did with Lagway. Through the first five games with Mertz at the helm, Florida played two teams with a pulse (Miami and Texas A&M) and lost both games handily.
In the season opener against Miami, Florida got dogwalked and Mertz struggled big-time. He finished the game with just 11 completions for 91 yards and one interception and left the game early with a concussion. Against A&M, Mertz was a bit better but in the second half, he and Lagway alternated drives with the Gators looking for a spark.
Simply put: I do not think Mertz had the top-end ability that Lagway possesses. I don’t think Florida survives that brutal end-of-season stretch with Mertz still leading the offense.
How did Graham Mertz’s injury impact 2024 and beyond?
You never root for injuries (and I’m not doing that here) but DJ Lagway getting the opportunity to finish the 2024 season as the unquestioned starter moving forward is a very good thing for the Florida Gators football program.
Furthermore, I think Lagway’s development over the final six games of the season went a long way in Billy Napier keeping his job. He could’ve always sold his bosses on the promise of Lagway, but it’s a little easier to sell potential and could-be when you have a six-game sample size.
I’m also willing to bet that Lagway’s impressive performances had a positive impact on the Gators’ 2025 recruiting class. 247 Sports ranked Florida’s incoming class 10th overall. I suspect that group is filled with guys excited about playing with a promising young quarterback like Lagway.
Winning seven games with a brutal 2024 schedule is no small feat. Napier and his team deserve a ton of credit for that. Although it was unfortunate that Graham Mertz had to get injured for the Gators to fully commit to DJ Lagway, Lagway getting the chance to shine over the last six games ended up being a blessing in disguise.
Do you have any 2024 college football What Ifs you’d like me to explore? Drop your suggestions in the comments.