Week 7 - The Call Sheet

Bucks vs. Ducks, Red River and a big one in Baton Rouge.

5-Wide

The 5 games you’re not gonna wanna miss this weekend.

No. 4 Penn State vs. USC

For all of the bluster of the last few weeks with upsets across college football, Penn State has done a nice job of just handling its business.

The stats tell the story that Penn State is a very good offensive and defensive team, even if the offense has lagged at times, like against Illinois. The Nittany Lions enter the week ranked 2nd in offensive success rate and 8th in defensive success rate. There’s a certain balance to this team that provides a level of comfort, not felt in previous seasons.

I’ve been particularly impressed with the defense and I suspect that unit will play a big deciding factor in this game against USC. That unit has allowed just 19 points combined in its two biggest games so far this season. That defensive line is fierce, and the entire does a good job of generating pressure and rallying to the football. Keep an eye on the matchup between Penn State’s defensive ends and USC’s offensive tackles. USC’s tackles had a bad, bad day against Michigan’s good d-line and it could be a repeat of that again on Saturday.

Unlike most years, USC’s defense really hasn’t been the problem. Sure, it could’ve done a better job of tackling on the final drive against Michigan, but otherwise, that unit has been solid. The offense, on the other hand, has had some struggles. I think quarterback Miller Moss is pretty good but with that unit generating just 17 points against Minnesota, there are plenty of unanswered questions.

Keep an eye on the matchup on the outside for USC. The Trojans have a pair of big wide receivers that do a good job of snagging jump balls. That could be a good exit strategy for Miller Moss in the face of a lot of pressure from the Nittany Lions’ defensive line.

Penn State should win this one, but as the last few weeks have proven, no games are a given. The Nittany Lions will have to earn it.

No. 1 Texas vs. No. 18 Oklahoma

Can Oklahoma muster enough offense to keep pace with Texas? That’s the question that my mind keeps going back to for this one

Oklahoma has been so woefully bad on offense, that I’m not sure I see a clear route for the Sooners to keep pace in this game. That is unless Brent Venables and that defense put on an absolute masterclass and create a ton of havoc for Texas.

Entering the game, OU’s offense ranks 127th in offensive success rate and 120th in dropback success rate. New start Michael Hawkins appears to offer something on the ground, which might help in this game. But with a limited receiving core and freshman quarterback, I don’t like Oklahoma’s chances.

For Texas, this game should be about taking care of business. Attempt to not get caught up in the nonsense and just out-execute Oklahoma. Venables will likely attempt to pressure Quinn Ewers, but so far this season, Ewers has passed the test versus a good defense against Michigan.

I like Texas to win comfortably.

No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Oregon

If you like trench warfare, this is the game for you. I’m ecstatic to watch the lines of scrimmage in this game, especially the matchup between Oregon’s fearsome d-line and Ohio State’s mature o-line.

This feels like one of Oregon’s best defensive lines in a long time. They do a great job of blowing up run plays and pressuring the quarterback, all of which will be key if this unit hopes to slow down the mighty Ohio State offense.

How will Ohio State counter? My wild card prediction is that Chip Kelly will have watched Alabama and Georgia’s success out of an empty formation and attempt to do the same. Just a hunch we could see some of that.

Oregon has slightly underperformed this season. The offense hasn’t always gelled; at times, it looked clunky. No more tinkering. No more time. We need to see this offense in full force if it hopes to win this game.

The strangest part of the Oregon offense halfway through the season is that quarterback Dillon Gabriel keeps making bad decisions with the ball, especially in the red zone. Keep an eye on this on Saturday.

This one should feel like a heavyweight fight. Despite the home-field advantage, I slightly lean toward Ohio State.

No. 9 Ole Miss vs. No. 13 LSU

In a matchup featuring two coaches who don’t win many big games, something has to give.

Ole Miss has largely played fine, outside of that gruesome Kentucky loss where the Wildcats hit them with a meat cleaver. LSU has been a bit more up and down. After losing its opening game to USC, the Tigers had another close call and near loss against South Carolina.

Which version of each team are we getting?

I like Ole Miss here. LSU’s defense isn’t very good and I suspect Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin will cook up something special for Brian Kelly’s defense.

I do sort of like LSU’s offense. I really like quarterback Garrett Nussmeier. I’m just not sure the Tigers have enough on either side of the ball to hang with a pretty formidable Ole Miss team.

Give me the Rebels.

Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky

Which team can mentally flush the last win and regroup? That’s the big question for this matchup.

Last week, Vanderbilt shocked the college football world with its upset over No. 1 Alabama. A week prior, Kentucky pulled an upset of its own, knocking off a Top 10-ranked Ole Miss in Oxford.

This is shaping up to be a great Vandy offensive versus Kentucky defense matchup. Entering the game, Vanderbilt ranks 13th in EPA margin and 5th in EPA/dropback. With All Hustle Team quarterback Diego Pavia calling the shots, the Commodores have been difficult to contain. After watching what he and the Commodores did to the Crimson Tide, I can’t wait to see what Mark Stoops’ defense cooks up.

Kentucky did a great job of limiting Ole Miss’ explosive play rate two weeks ago, and this until will need to do that again against Vanderbilt.

Traditional wisdom suggests that it’ll be hard for Vanderbilt to get up for another huge game in the aftermath of its Alabma win. I’m leaning toward Kentucky on this one and I expect a lower-scoring affair.

Games I’m Keeping An Eye On 👀

Cal vs. No. 22 Pitt - Can the CALgorithm bounce back against a now 5-0 Pitt team? Or does Pitt take another step toward competing for the ACC title?

No. 11 Iowa State vs. West Virginia - This screams trap game for undefeated Iowa State. I’m curious to see how that defense looks when it’s not facing Baylor and Iowa levels of offense.

No. 18 Kansas State vs. Colorado - The Buffaloes are on the upswing after back-to-back victories, but can the defense hold up against a stout Kansas State run game? Conversely, can CU’s offense pick apart a strong unit for the Wildcats? This feels like a must-watch, late-night game.

The Brent Musburger Gambling Guide

My official locks of the week. (Lines are locked in at the time of writing)

+2 units overall on the season.

Georgia Tech vs. +6 North Carolina - I like the Tar Heels to keep this one close.

Southern Miss vs. ULM OVER 41.5 - Sicko Mode.

-2.5 Ole Miss vs. LSU - Let’s get the Lane Train rollin’.

What I’m Reading This Season

SID Sports - Don’t forget to subscribe to Griffin Olah’s SID Sports newsletter. As a former Divison I sports information director, Olah has a great grasp of the sport and I really enjoy his work.

2201 Kimball Ave | Cameron Morgan - 2201 Kimball Ave is essential reading for all followers of Kansas State football. As a lifelong K-State fan and former player, Cameron brings a unique and thoughtful approach to the analysis of the Wildcats' football team. His newsletters are rational and insightful and I genuinely learn something new with every newsletter.

Split Zone Duo | Alex Kirshner, Richard Johnson and Steven Godfrey - SZD is essential reading and following for CFB ball knowers. Godfrey, Richard and Alex are the Holy Trinity for college football analysis and insight. Each member brings a unique flavor to the conversation, which makes for insightful and downright hilarious banter about the sport we all love. If I had someone ask me where to start for smarter college football coverage, this SZD is where I'd send them.