Week 4 - The Call Sheet
B1G Boy football, a Big 12 title test and a primetime SEC showdown.
Knight’s Watch - Saturday night, UCF erased a 21-point second-half deficit, pouring in 15 points in the fourth to down TCU 35-34. This felt like a pivotal moment for both teams. UCF’s run game has the Knights trending up, whereas TCU has been in limbo since the 2022 national title game.
Sparty Up - Arizona State notched an impressive road victory over Texas State on Thursday night. The Sun Devils are a run-heavy team, but quarterback Sam Leavitt made some gutsy plays to help ASU start 3-0. I can’t lie, I enjoy watching this ASU team.
Rising concerns? - Utah quarterback Cam Rising did not play on Saturday against Utah State due to a hand injury. The Utes have a big game this week, so here’s to hoping Rising can rally and play.
LaNorris the Creator - South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers is just awesome. His dual-threat abilities gave the Gamecocks a real shot at an upset on Saturday. Cheers to the Solid Verbal’s Dan Rubenstein for the awesome nickname; it fits perfectly.
Rugged Redhawks - Could Miami Ohio be the best 0-3 team in the country after this weekend? Through three games, the Redhawks have played Northwestern and Cincinnati and have a date with Notre Dame this weekend. Perhaps this is just a tough early-season schedule.
Woeful West Virginia - The Mountaineers were a darling story last season, but blowing a 10-point lead in the final four minutes against rivals Pitt on Saturday is unacceptable. Can’t have it.
Lea’s leeway - How much leeway does Vanderbilt coach Clark Lea have left after losing to Georgia State on Saturday night? It feels like it’s been one step forward, two steps back ever since his appointment.
5-Wide
The 5 games you’re not gonna wanna miss this weekend.
No. 24 Illinois vs. No. 22 Nebraska
B1G Boy football is coming to Friday night.
If you’re a LOS fiend like me, you’ll love this matchup between 24th-ranked Illinois and 22nd-ranked Nebraska. There are storylines aplenty with this matchup, but without hesitation, I’m confident in saying this game will be decided at the line of scrimmage.
*Source: GameonPaper.com
Illinois enters the game on pace to have an efficient offense and defense. Both units rank in the top 30 nationally in Net EPA/Play, signaling a level of solidity that is sometimes hard to come by this early in the season. Surprisingly, on offense, the Fighting Illini have excelled better in the air, ranking 40th in passing success.
Through three games (and against somewhat lackluster competition), it’s clear that Illinois prioritizes good starting field position and getting ahead of the sticks on early downs. Keep an eye on this. If Nebraska can disrupt the Fighting Illini offense on first and second downs, it heaps much more pressure on quarterback Luke Altmeyer. Speaking of Altmeyer, he’s never going to blow you away with physical attributes, but he’s the type of gamer who can lead a team to victory on the road.
For Nebraska, this matchup should be a good measuring stick for how good this team and offense truly is. Quarterback Dylan Railoa has predictably looked good against bad competition, but how will he fare against an aggressive B10 defense?
I’m particularly intrigued to see how well Nebraska can run the ball against a stout defense. If the Huskers can grind the ball and clock, Railoa won’t have to play hero ball. If Nebraska struggles on the ground, the game plan changes to a degree.
Nebraska should be favorites at home but I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see Illinois walk in and walk out with a win.
No. 11 USC vs. No. 16 Michigan
Can Michigan score enough points to hang with USC? That’s the prevailing question when I look at this matchup.
Entering the season, this game arguably had a much bigger feel to it. Unfortunately, Michigan has not held up its end of the bargain, especially offensively, and I have some big concerns about this team moving forward.
Against Arkansas State on Saturday, starting quarterback Davis Warren was benched after throwing three interceptions. Backup quarterback Alex Oriji didn’t perform much better. Something has to give for this Michigan passing attack to get off the ground.
On the flip side, USC looked great in Week 1 against LSU and has handled its business in the subsequent weeks. Quarterback Miller Moss looks confident and has appears to be getting a lot out of the Lincoln Riley tutelage. And USC defense…man, what a revelation. New defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn has this defense hitting hard, moving faster and playing with a level of freedom and chaos previously unseen.
I suspect USC sells out to stop Michigan’s run game and just dares any of the quarterbacks to pass the ball. USC should score enough to escape The Big House with a comfortable victory.
No. 12 Utah vs. No. 14 Oklahoma State
Which versions of these teams are we getting on Saturday?
Entering the game, Utah is a bit wounded, with starting quarterback Cam Rising missing time with a hand injury. Is he good to play? My gut says yes. And for the Utes’ sake, it better hope so.
I can’t wait to watch the beautiful chaos that is the Oklahoma State Cowboys. OSU should’ve lost to Arkansas in Week 2, but by hook or by crook somehow outlasted the Razorbacks to win in double overtime. The offense is led by superstar running back Ollie Gordon and seventh-year quarterback Alan Bowman. If one or both can get going, the Cowboys can win this game.
I’m not sure what to expect out of Utah, outside of the fact that the Utes will undeniably hit OSU with a sack of hammers. Kyle Wittingham teams love to hit and play physically, so I expect nothing less on Saturday.
This will be a big test for both teams and could go a long way in deciding the early Big 12 title race.
No. 8 Miami vs. USF
Can USF hang around? That’s what I keep coming back to with this matchup.
Miami has dazzled through three games, albeit against subpar competition. In the national TV game of Week 1, the Canes destroyed a withering Florida team, showcasing just how impactful transfer quarterback Cam Ward can be in the air and on the ground.
In this particular matchup, I’m curious to see what USF can cook up on defense. The Bulls did a great job of limiting mighty Alabama to just 14 points through three quarters. Is it possible USF could do something similar against Miami? I sneakily think so.
In the offseason, I teased this game as an upset watch and I’m sticking to it.
It feels unlikely that Miami goes down, but the Bulls are a legitimate team and could prove to be a real test for Mario Cristobal’s bunch.
No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 15 Oklahoma
I’ll be honest, I’m not sure I see a world where Oklahoma wins this game.
Through three weeks, the Tennessee offense has put up gaudy, video game-like numbers and levels of efficiency, and I’m not sure how much Oklahoma can slow them down. Even in a “big” matchup against NC State, the Vols wiped the floor with the Wolfpack.
One factor to consider, however, is that Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables is a genius defensive mind, and likely will have a wealth of stunts and pressures at his disposal. Can Venables limit phenom Nico Iamaleava on the road? I can’t wait to find out.
Games I’m Keeping An Eye On 👀
Florida vs. Mississippi State - The Guantanamo Bay Sickos Special. Viewer discretion is advised.
Michigan State vs. Boston College - This is a sizeable game for both teams. I’m curious to see if Spartan quarterback Aidan Chiles can perform well against a decent BC defense.
Iowa vs. Minnesota - Two teams competing for a big ol’ pig trophy, let’s have it!
Arizona State vs. Texas Tech - I’d bet my left arm something very stupid and dumb happens in this game. Call it a feeling.
The Brent Musburger Gambling Guide
My official locks of the week. (Lines are locked in at the time of writing)
+1 units overall
-5.5 USC vs. Michigan - Off a bye week, USC should be ready to go against a struggling Michigan offense.
Kansas State vs. BYU OVER 47.5 - Let’s see some points.
Houston vs. Cincinnati OVER 48.5 - Houston got right against Rice last week and I expect more points out of the Cougars.
What I’m Reading This Season
SID Sports - Don’t forget to subscribe to Griffin Olah’s SID Sports newsletter. As a former Divison I sports information director, Olah has a great grasp of the sport and I really enjoy his work.
2201 Kimball Ave | Cameron Morgan - 2201 Kimball Ave is essential reading for all followers of Kansas State football. As a lifelong K-State fan and former player, Cameron brings a unique and thoughtful approach to the analysis of the Wildcats' football team. His newsletters are rational and insightful and I genuinely learn something new with every newsletter.
Split Zone Duo | Alex Kirshner, Richard Johnson and Steven Godfrey - SZD is essential reading and following for CFB ball knowers. Godfrey, Richard and Alex are the Holy Trinity for college football analysis and insight. Each member brings a unique flavor to the conversation, which makes for insightful and downright hilarious banter about the sport we all love. If I had someone ask me where to start for smarter college football coverage, this SZD is where I'd send them.