5-Wide
The 5 games you’re not gonna wanna miss this weekend.
Georgia vs. Tennessee
An old SEC East clash, oh what fun this one should be.
No. 6 Georgia enters the game 2-0 and thus far, untested with wins against Marshall and Austin Peay. On offense, the Bulldogs have played fairly unremarkable football through two weeks.
Quarterback Gunner Stockton has completed 69% of his passes and has slightly over 400 yards, but only two touchdowns. He’s also chipped in two scores on QB rushes. The big problem, however, is that he isn’t pushing the ball down the field. It’s largely been a pickleball offense, and that’s not going to cut it against good SEC competition.
On the ground, UGA has two primary rushers in Nate Frazier and Dwight Phillips Jr., who have combined for a little over 230 yards and three touchdowns.
In typical UGA fashion, much to do has been made about the offensive line and offensive coordinator Mike Bobo. Bulldogs fans don’t seem pleased with the physicality up front. They also still don’t like the fact that Bobo is calling plays. Such as life, I suppose.
The defense has been fine, although I’m not sure there’s a ton to glean from games against a rebuilt Marshall team and Austin Peay. They should’ve been dominant and largely were. A much bigger test awaits, particularly in the secondary, against the Vols.
Speaking of the Vols, Tennessee stomped a mudhole in Syracuse in Week 1. I don’t think that scoreline is an accurate reflection of the game. Tennessee ran for a shit ton of yards, quarterback Joey Aguilar punished the ‘Cuse secondary and the defensive line made Steve Angeli uneasy all afternoon.
I really like what I saw from the Vols in Week 1. So much so, I’m giving them a half-decent shot to knock off Georgia this weekend.
Keys to the Game
I’ll be really curious to see how this offensive line holds up against what I think is a pretty formidable Georgia defensive front seven. The key for Tennessee is probably finding a way to run the ball. Through two games, the Vols have generated 0.12 EPA/Rush (40th) and will go up against UGA with the 12th-best figure when it comes to stopping the run. Something has to give there.
If Tennessee can piece together a run game and not allow UGA to tee off on the tackles and quarterback Joey Aguilar, I think the Vols have a fighting chance.
Final Verdict
I wrote a lot about how I think Tennessee has a chance (and I still believe that), but my brain tells me this is a game where Georgia gets the win. Barring a full-blown Stockton implosion, I think UGA takes care of business in this one.
Pitt vs. West Virginia
Everything about this game screams a Pitt victory.
The Panthers have more continuity at the quarterback position. They’ve looked the better team through two games. And West Virginia is attempting to break in a ton of new players and find an identity on the fly.
But the beauty of this rivalry is that just when you think it’s sure-fire one way or the other…you realize one of the teams has been playing possum, and they jump up and bite their rival.
Pitt quarterback Eli Holstein has been good through two games, albeit against low-level competition. He’s thrown for over 500 yards, has completed over 71% of his passes and has tacked on 8 touchdowns. He’s a big part of what Pitt tries to do on offense.
West Virginia, on the other hand, has some problems at the quarterback position. Through two games, Nicco Marchiol has just one touchdown. The Mountaineers as a whole sit at -0.08 EPA/Play good for 129th in the country. Major red flag.
Granted, Rich Rod teams like to run the hell out of the ball, so maybe the passing stuff is a little by design. But I can promise you that losing on the road to Ohio was not part of the master plan. This team is definitely suffering from some early-season growing pains, and it’s understandable, considering the roster turnover from last year.
Keys to the Game
From where I sit, West Virginia’s only hope to winning this game is to make it stupid, ugly, nasty. The Mountaineers need to generate pressure on Holstein and force him into a few early mistakes. Then, West Virginia needs to lean on its run game to chew clock and hopefully bust a few big ones.
If those things don’t happen, I think Pitt probably wins comfortably.
Final Verdict
Never underestimate an overlooked Rich Rod team, but I think Pitt should come out on top here. Unless WVU suddenly develops a passing game overnight (or they totally drag Pitt into the mud), I don’t see a great path forward for the Mountaineers. Give me the Panthers.
Texas A&M vs. Notre Dame
Football games are often won and lost at the lines of scrimmage, but that point feels especially true for a game of this magnitude.
From where I sit, both of these teams possess similarities that should make this game intriguing from the get-go. Both teams are run-first offenses and possess some serious firepower in the backfield. Both have talent littered across the offensive and defensive lines. And both sets of coordinators tend to bring some fun or interesting wrinkles to the table. I think this one will be a fun chess match.
Texas A&M enters the game 2-0 after wins against lesser opponents. Predictably, the Aggies have been decent on the ground, putting up 0.11 EPA/Rush, good for 45th in the country. But to be honest, I expected a lot more production through two games. It’s actually been quarterback Marcel Reed who’s been backpacking the offense. I’m curious to see if that’s just some early-season wobbles or something to monitor moving forward.
Notre Dame, on the other hand, had a bit of a puzzling showing in its Week 1 matchup against Miami. I thought the Fighting Irish got pushed around up front, which is not something you say often about the modern iteration of Notre Dame.
Quarterback CJ Carr had some bright spots, but the run game sort of sputtered. Again, like the case with A&M, I’m curious to see if this was a one-game drop off or something more concerning.
I’m willing to bet both teams lean into the run game a lot more than they have in the first few weeks of the season.
Keys to the Game
Games are won and lost at the lines of scrimmage, and I suspect that’ll be the case here. If A&M can finally get the run game going, it’ll go a long way in helping the Aggies spring a road victory.
Conversely, this feels like a big Jeremiyah Love spot. Love didn’t get nearly enough touches in Week 1, and I’m betting that’s alleviated on Saturday night.
Outside of the LOS, I’m curious to watch Reed and Carr on the big stage.
Final Verdict
I’m fairly bullish on A&M this season, but I’m struggling to see Notre Dame losing both of its most important games so early in the season. I suspect Love gets going and the Fighting Irish win this must-win game by a slim margin.
Florida vs. LSU
Florida finds itself reeling after a surprising loss to upstart USF in Week 2. In that game, Lagway looked off, the offense didn’t generate enough explosive plays, Billy Napier made some puzzling coaching decisions and on the whole, the team played undisciplined and uninspired football.
The positives? Florida has a brief chance at redemption in the coming weeks, starting with this matchup against LSU.
More than the discipline, more than Billy Napier, heck, more than offense or defense, this team needs to play with a fire under their ass. It’s a low bar to clear, but their chances of winning against LSU start there.
Outside of that, I think Lagway needs to play much closer to the star that he can be than the average quarterback he resembled last week. Through a pair of games, Florida sits at a 43.1% Success Rate, good for only 73rd in the country. All in all, the offense just has not been good enough at sustaining drives and creating explosive plays. When you have both of those things, it’s extremely hard to win high-level football games.
If the offense can clean some stuff up and hit some shot plays, this team has a shot against LSU. If not, I don’t see how they win a big game on the road.
Across the field, LSU enters the game with something it hasn’t had in quite some time…a truly effective defense. The Tigers spent big in the transfer portal and have not-so-quietly pieced together a badass unit.
According to GameonPaper, LSU has a -.30 Early Downs EPA/Play rate, meaning they do a good job of clamping teams on early downs and keeping teams behind the sticks. In particular, I thought LSU did a good job of mixing in blitzes and man coverage to give the Clemson offense problems in Week 1. I suspect Blake Baker’s boys will blitz Lagway early and often on Saturday.
On offense, quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has been solid, even if he hasn’t quite had to hit high gear yet. In the Clemson game, he did a nice job of not forcing balls, instead finding receivers underneath and letting them rack up YAC. I’m curious to see if LSU tries to dial up a few shot plays to get this offense going early on Saturday.
Keys to the Game
As I mentioned before, I need to see a lot more from this Florida offense. I’d like to see them get creative with getting the ball out of Lagway’s hands a little faster, and not leaving it up to him to throw the ball late across the field.
Conversely, I’d love to see LSU hit some shot plays and open things up. If the Tigers can also run the ball well, that’ll be a huge lift to take the pressure off Nussmeier and company.
Final Verdict
As long as Florida hasn’t quit on Napier, I think they come out inspired and play hard. That said, I like LSU to win but Florida to cover.
Clemson vs. Georgia Tech
It’s still early days, but Clemson has not looked like an ACC title team, much like one that can make a run in the College Football Playoff.
The offense has not hit on explosive plays, and quarterback Cade Klubnik has not looked like a first-round pick. This offense is going to have to play much better if the Tigers hope to beat a rowdy bunch of angry three stars in Georgia Tech.
Perhaps the most concerning thing about Clemson, however, is the non-existent run game. The Tigers struggled to run the ball against LSU in Week 1, and it didn’t get much better against Troy last week. The lack of run game is putting a ton of Klubnik’s shoulders, and so far, he hasn’t been able to carry that burden. Figure out the run game and I bet some of these woes go away.
Georgia Tech will go as far as quarterback Haynes King carries them. The Haynes King Headbutt offense is both fun and effective, letting him utilize his God-given running abilities to unleash havoc on opposing defenses.
My biggest concern with the GT offense is the turnovers. The Yellow Jackets turned the ball over three times in eight minutes in the debut game against Colorado. Thanks to Haynes King, the Yellow Jackets were able to score a big one late and walk out of Boulder with the win. But that’s not a sustainable way to play football.
I think if Georgia Tech can hold up against Clemson’s fearsome front four, the Yellow Jackets have a shot at pulling the upset.
Keys to the Game
Clemson needs to desperately find a run game. Without it, way too much is going to be asked of Klubnik…and I hate that scenario on the road against a team that likes to get up for big games.
Georgia Tech needs to clean up the turnovers. Win the turnover battle, and you give yourself a shot to win the game.
Final Verdict
Dabo Swinney teams notoriously get better as the season progresses, but we’re only in Week 3, and I’m not sure that’s going to help them much on Saturday. Give me the angry three stars and the points.
The Brent Musburger Gambling Guide
My official locks of the week. (Lines are locked in at the time of writing)
Overall: -4 units
Clemson vs. +3.5 Georgia Tech - Give me the Yellow Jackets in a big spot.
Georgia vs. +3.5 Tennessee - I haven’t loved what I’ve seen from UGA so far. I think this one will be close.
-2 App State vs. Southern Miss - This number feels very low.
"Pickleball offense" Love that description of an offense.