Week 3 - Five Questions

A motivational moment, an all-time bad SEC team and Arch Manning's allure.

How happy was Georgia coach Kirby Smart with Saturday night’s result?

Bud Elliott posed this question to kickstart the Cover 3 Podcast reaction show Saturday night and I think it’s a worthwhile one to explore. Let me explain.

Elite college football coaches are complete psychopaths. They look for every morsel, and crumb on the floor, sweep it up and then use it as motivational material, whether it is truly warranted or not. Kirby Smart is a master at this.

I’d argue that Kirby Smart got the best of both worlds in his team’s narrow 13-12 victory over Kentucky.

Georgia won, which is the important thing. The Bulldogs remain unscathed and likely won’t drop in the rankings. This is good news for UGA fans.

But secondly, now Kirby Smart can use that game as razor-blade-sharp motivational fodder. I can almost guarantee you that in the postgame locker room, Kirby laid into the Georgia players, explaining to them they have a lot of work to do to climb the mountaintop again. He’ll resurface media clips all week talking about how poor Georgia looked and how much better Ole Miss and Texas looked.

Nick Saban used to do this sort of thing all the time. Now Kirby does it too.

Saturday night was a win-win for Kirby Smart and Georgia.

Is the 2024 Mississippi State Bulldogs the worst non-Vanderbilt SEC team of all time?

Entering the season, my expectations were pretty low for Mississippi State.

As someone who is sort of a fan of the Bulldogs, I have a decent pulse on the program. I expected this version of MSU under first-year coach Jeff Lebby would score points, be pretty bad defensively and win maybe four games. Through three games, I was only right about the bad defense part.

This feels like a historically bad SEC team. In the two matchups against teams with a pulse, the Bulldogs have gotten mauled at the LOS and couldn’t stop the run to save its life. Arizona State bludgeoned the Bulldogs in the desert and Toledo (yes, Toledo) dogwalked MSU at home on Saturday night to the tune of 41-17.

In 2024, the MSU defense ranks in or around the 99th percentile (holy cow, that’s hard to type) in the following defensive categories against the run, per GameonPaper: Plays per game (tied 124th), Total EPA (99th), EPA/play (94th), EPA/game (98th) and Success Rate (105th).

Remember, this is an SEC team we’re talking about. There are only 134 total FBS teams. Dispicably grim stuff.

I’d probably be a tad less disgusted if the offense was humming, but that hasn’t happened either. The thing that Lebby supposedly brings to the table has been empty calories. Not good.

I truly believe MSU is in the running for the worst Power 4 team in 2024, next to Vanderbilt, Duke, Purdue and UCLA.

Next week, Mississippi State squares off with Florida in the Guantanamo Bay sickos game of the week. Viewer discretion is advised.

Quinn Ewers couldn’t be Wally Pipped by Arch Manning, could he?

This offseason, I wrote about the Siren Song of Arch Manning and grappled with whether Texas coach Steve Sarkisian could resist the temptation of his shiny new toy.

In Saturday night’s blowout win over UTSA, the world got a glimpse at what Sarkisian is wrestling with. Heisman favorite Quinn Ewers went down with what is now being described as an abdomen injury, forcing Arch Manning into significant action. Manning did not disappoint.

He dazzled fans with impressive displays in the air and on the ground, including a filthy 67-yard zone read run for a touchdown. The competition was what it was, but that cameo was enough to plant a few seeds of doubt in the minds of Texas fans.

I’ll admit the likelihood is low, but if Quinn Ewers misses the next few games (ULM, Mississippi State) and Arch Manning dazzles, I think there’s at least a non-zero chance of Arch stealing minutes and potentially the starting job.

Ewers has been awesome in 2024 and deserves to be the starter, but I think it’s remiss to totally discount the running ability and WOW factor with Arch Manning.

Let’s keep an eye on this space over the next few months.

Could Tyler Van Dyke’s injury be a reset moment for Wisconsin and Luke Fickell?

On the first drive of the game against Alabama on Saturday, Wisconsin starting quarterback Tyler Van Dyke went down with a knee injury and did not return. I’m not a doctor but things did not look good.

This question is not intended to make light of TVD’s injury. It was very unfortunate and I feel really bad for him. But I do wonder if this injury could be a long-term good thing for Wisconsin.

I could argue that Wisconsin, even with TVD at the helm, looked like a team that probably wouldn’t make a bowl game. The Badgers have looked that out of sorts. Now, with TVD out, Wisconsin almost certainly won’t hit the six-win threshold.

I wonder if this loss of a season (if it becomes that) forces Fickell’s hand with offensive coordinator Phil Longo. Upon his appointment, Longo installed his typical Air Raid system and it just has not worked in the slightest. Not sure if it’s his fault or they don’t have the players or what. But it has not worked.

I suspect that if TVD does not return this season, Fickell will be spared some of the second-year-disappointment heat and that he can harness that shield to revamp this program around a different offensive philosophy.

Where have I been right and where have I been wrong after three weeks?

Every offseason, I cobble together a College Football Bulls and Bears List, detailing what teams I’m buying and selling entering a new season. Let’s take stock of a few highlights from that list now that we’re a fourth of the way through the regular season.

Hits

• Missouri - Albeit against some below-average competition (especially through the first two weeks), Missouri looks the part. I like what I’m seeing from the Alpha Nerd and his team.

• UCF - UCF scored 28 second-half points on Saturday night in a comeback victory over TCU. The offense has looked shaky at times, but perhaps Saturday’s huge output on the ground can be a catalyst for the 3-0 Knights moving forward.

• USF - The Bulls put up a strong showing against No.4 Alabama a week ago and its offense continues to be pretty stout. Keep an eye on Alex Golesh as the coach carousel starts turning later in the season.

Misses

• Arizona State - I had the Sun Devils dead wrong. I expected ASU to struggle and barely scrape two wins. Three weeks into the season, the Sun Devils have walloped Mississippi State and recently knocked off a good Texas State team on the road. Good stuff from Kenny Dillingham.

• Notre Dame - I did not have losing to NIU on my Notre Dame Bingo card. I thought the Irish would go 12-0 and cakewalk its way to the CFP.

• NC State - Hand up, this was a big whiff here. I grossly understated how bad this offense looks. Not good.

What I’m Reading This Season

SID Sports - Don’t forget to subscribe to Griffin Olah’s SID Sports newsletter. As a former Divison I sports information director, Olah has a great grasp of the sport and I really enjoy his work.

2201 Kimball Ave | Cameron Morgan - 2201 Kimball Ave is essential reading for all followers of Kansas State football. As a lifelong K-State fan and former player, Cameron brings a unique and thoughtful approach to the analysis of the Wildcats' football team. His newsletters are rational and insightful and I genuinely learn something new with every newsletter.

Split Zone Duo | Alex Kirshner, Richard Johnson and Steven Godfrey - SZD is essential reading and following for CFB ball knowers. Godfrey, Richard and Alex are the Holy Trinity for college football analysis and insight. Each member brings a unique flavor to the conversation, which makes for insightful and downright hilarious banter about the sport we all love. If I had someone ask me where to start for smarter college football coverage, this SZD is where I'd send them.