5-Wide
The 5 games you’re not gonna wanna miss this weekend.
Iowa vs. Iowa State
Iowa enters the game 1-0 after a poor offensive showing against Albany in Week 1. Last season, the Hawkeyes went 8-5 and finished the season with a loss in the Music City Bowl.
This season, the Iowa roster is littered with new faces, chief among them being new starting quarterback Mark Gronowski. Gronowski comes in from FCS powerhouse South Dakota State, where he threw for over 10,000 yards, scored 130 touchdowns, won a pair of national titles and was named the 2023 Walter Payton Award winner as the top FCS offensive player.
There’s a lot of hype surrounding Gronowski—even if his Week 1 showing didn’t exactly go to plan. To be completely honest, he was a mess. I was shocked to see him play so poorly. His development and ability to make plays at this level will likely be the determining factor of just how good this team can truly be.
Speaking of new, Iowa is also replacing former starting running back Kaleb Johnson, who is off to the NFL. Replacing his production won’t be easy, but the Hawkeyes do have a promising one-two punch at that position with Kamari Moulton and Jaziun Patterson. Up front, Iowa returns three starting offensive linemen, including All-Big 10 center Logan Jones.
Questions remain about the level of wide receiver production in 2025. Last year’s yards leader finished with a team-high 411 yards. That’s simply not good enough to compete in a loaded Big 10.
On defense, I suspect Iowa will be business as usual, thanks to the continuity that defensive coordinator Phil Parker brings to the table. The defensive line should be good again, with three of the top four defensive ends back from last year, along with starting tackle Aaron Graves.
The secondary is highlighted by senior Xavier Nwankpa, a former five-star recruit, who is back at strong safety. The linebackers need to develop quickly, with the top returner having only 21 career tackles, and with most of those coming on special teams.
Per usual, Iowa should have a stellar special teams unit once again. In 2024, kicker Drew Stevens knocked down 20-of-23 kicks, while punter Rhys Dakin averaged 44.1 yards per punt. Return man Kaden Wetjen averaged 28 yards per kickoff return and 12.6 yards per punt return.
The questions for Iowa are largely centered around the offense and whether Gronowski can elevate this team from good to great. The Hawkeyes play a tricky schedule, but I really love the addition of Gronowski and think he’ll be an impact player for Iowa this season.
On the other side of the field, Iowa State enters this Cy-Hawk Rivalry game with a 2-0 record. The Cyclones opened the season with a dramatic, late-game, Irish Farmageddon victory over Kansas State and rounded out Week 2 with a dominant win over South Dakota.
The Cyclones return 12 players from the 2024 team, chief among them being quarterback Rocco Becht. Becht returns, having thrown for 6,600 yards and 48 touchdowns since arriving in Ames. So far this season, Becht has thrown for 461 yards and five touchdowns in two strong showings.
Along with Becht, the Cyclones return a strong one-two punch at the running back position with Carson Hansen and Abu Sama III. In 2024, Hansen had 13 rushing touchdowns, but Sama III is the home run threat. Iowa State also returns 106 starts on the offensive line.
For all the good this offense returns, there are question marks on the outside, notably at the wide receiver position. The Cyclones lost passcatchers Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins to the NFL. Fans in Ames are hopeful that UCF transfer Xavier Townsend and ECU transfer Chase Sowell can fill that departing production.
Speaking of question marks, the defense is a big one. Last year’s unit had a ton of injuries and will need to stay much healthier this time around if the Cyclones hope to make another push in the Big 12. Nose guard Domonique Orange is one to watch. He’s one of the more talented NGs in the country and should anchor this group through the middle.
Thus far, however, this unit has held up well, limiting Kansas State to just 110 rushing yards in the season-opener.
Keys to the Game
I can’t wait to watch these two quarterbacks go at it.
Becht carries a certain level of moxy that is difficult to deny. In late-game situations, you just feel like he’s going to will his team to victory.
On the other side, I’m excited to see Gronowski in a big spot for his first big test of the 2025 season. I’m curious to see if Iowa OC Tim Lester can utilize the QB run game to set up a couple of big play action passes for explosive plays.
Final Verdict
It was hard to watch Iowa in Week 1 and turn around and pick them to win this game…but that’s exactly what I’m going to do. Against my preseason judgment, Iowa State looks primed and ready to have another strong season in Ames, but I’m sticking with my guns and riding with Gronowski and the Hawkeyes in a nail-biter.
Illinois vs. Duke
Illinois enters this key non-conference tilt sitting at 1-0 after a dominant win over Western Illinois. Expectations are high for this group in 2025, and understandably so.
The Fighting Illini bring back a ton of key pieces from last year’s 10-3 team, including their head coach, OC, DC and 16 starters. When talking about returning production, the best place to start is with quarterback Luke Altmyer. Altmyer is back for his senior season and has his sights set on making some serious noise in a loaded Big 10 Conference.
Along with Altmyer, Illinois brings back all five starters up front, headlined by tackle J.C. Davis and center Josh Kreutz. In the backfield, junior running backs Aidan Laughery and Kaden Feagin should split the workload.
Continuity is a theme with this team, but not at the wide receiver position. The Fighting Illini need to replace a ton of reps in that area of the field, as they lost 69% of returning production at the WR position.
On defense, OLB Gabe Jacas and two-time All-Big 10 Star LB Xavier Scott are both back and should add some serious bite to a defense that’s expected to be good. Speaking of bite, Illinois has an awesome secondary, headlined by returning starters Miles Scott, Torrie Cox Jr. and Matthew Bailey.
Across the field, Duke looks pretty similar to what it did a year ago, only with a few new wrinkles.
Head coach Manny Diaz took a big swing this offseason with the addition of former Tulane quarterback Darian Mensah. Mensah has some serious top-end talent and should make this offense a lot more formidable.
Last year, Duke averaged 26 PPG and hopes that continuity and a few new additions can push that group into the 30s. The Blue Devils return four starters on the offensive line, plus running back Jaquez Moore, which should allow for a solid rushing attack.
Out wide, Duke brought in former Oklahoma wide receiver Andrel Anthony, and brought back guys like Que’Sean Brown and Sahmir Hagans.
On defense, the Blue Devils should be good once again. In 2024, that group tied SMU in sacks (43) and led the league with 116 tackles for loss. If that unit can build on that showing, Duke could make some real noise in the ACC.
The Duke defensive line should be good with guys like Vincent Anthony Jr and Wesley Williams back. As should the secondary, which includes returners Chandler Rivers and ball-hawking safety Terry Moore.
Keys to the Game
Illinois’s ability to key in on Darian Mensah and limit his dual-threat capabilities could likely determine which way this game goes. If that defense can limit big plays and force Mensah to go through multiple reads in the passing game, I like the Fighting Illini’s chances.
Final Verdict
Duke should be a really fun story in the ACC this year, but I think Illinois takes care of business in this one. I think the Fighting Illini’s continuity will play a big factor in them notching an important win on the road.
USF vs. Florida
This game just got a whole heck of a lot more interesting.
Last week, USF tore No. 25-ranked Boise State limb from limb in a 35-7 rout. Quarterback Byrum Brown looked every bit the player we saw before his gruesome leg break injury in 2024. And the defense flew around with vigor and pop, jarring loose a pair of key fumbles that helped flip the moment of the game.
This week, we’ll see just how hard and fast Alex Golesh’s young bulls can run when they take on a mega-hyped Florida team.
USF features an offensive line that brings back all five starters and boasts an 87 combined starts. That’s the kind of stat that makes you think an upset is possible.
Last year, the defense ranked sixth nationally in tackles for loss (7.9 per game) and tied for 13th in turnovers gained (25). That group also produced 32 sacks. Not bad, not bad at all.
Linebackers Mac Harris and Jhalyn Shuler are arguably that unit’s best two players.
Across the field, Florida enters the game fresh off a dominant win over Long Island University.
When you talk about the Gators, the conversation starts and ends with quarterback DJ Lagway. Lagway has a crazy high ceiling and, when healthy, is one of the best quarterbacks in college football. If he starts to sniff his true potential in 2025, Florida will have a heckuva team.
In the backfield, Florida has two physical and explosive backs in Jadan Baught and Ja’Kobi Jackson. Out wide, Eugene Wilson III is the main man, but he got hurt early in fall camp and didn’t exactly light it up in Week 1. Vernell Brown and transfer J. Michael Sturdivant might need to carry the load early in the season.
Along with all the high-caliber skill talent, Florida also possesses a quality offensive line. Last year, that unit allowed 19 fewer sacks than it did the year prior. Center Jake Slaughter anchors a strong group that features an experienced LT in Austin Barber and RG Damieon George Jr.
In 2024, the Gators registered 38 TFL, and that group should be pretty dang good again. Heavy-hitters Tyreak Sapp, Caleb Banks and LJ McCray are all back this season. And sophomore linebacker Myles Graham could be a star in the making.
Keys to the Game
If USF has any hopes of springing an upset, the Bulls will need to keep Lagway off-balance and off-schedule in the passing game. I thought USF did a nice job of making Boise State quarterback Maddux Madsen uncomfortable in Week 1, but this is clearly a step up in competition.
Final Verdict
I love what Golesh is building, but I’m inclined to pick Florida here. Barring some major defensive breakdowns, I don’t see USF being able to hang with Florida. Gimme the Gators.
Michigan vs. Oklahoma
After an offseason filled with news drops about the Michigan Sign-Stealing Scandal, the Wolverines can finally put that hoopla behind them and focus on football. In Week 1, Michigan took care of business against New Mexico. Now, their attention will turn to a critical non-conference tilt against Oklahoma.
In 2024, Michigan’s offense ranked 129th nationally in total offense. It’s safe to say there’s nowhere to go but up. When you talk about Michigan, a great starting point is freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood. The homegrown prodigy showed flashes of brilliance in Week 1, but will likely need to look like a finished product if the Wolverines hope to beat Oklahoma.
Around Underwood, Michigan has former All-Big 10 wideout Donaven McCulley (Indiana) and Alabama running back Justice Haynes, both of whom should add some juice to this offense.
On defense, the Wolverines are back with defensive coordinator Wink Martindale, who did some great things last season. On the field, the Wolverines return playmakers TJ Guy and Derrick Moore on the edge. Jaishawn Barham and Ernets Hausman are back at the linebacker positions. For all the good this defense possesses, there are some question marks about the secondary. That group will need to prove its worth against an improved Oklahoma offense.
For Oklahoma, after an offseason of upheaval, roster reconstruction and a beefed-up backroom, 2025 is shaping up to be a now-or-never season for Venables and the Sooners.
The storylines around Oklahoma are largely centered around the acquisition of new quarterback John Mateer. Mateer had a whole host of suitors once he entered the portal. He spurned a ton of schools and instead opted to follow his former offensive coordinator, Ben Arbuckle, to Norman.
Last season, Oklahoma’s offensive line struggled mightily. To combat the o-line woes, Oklahoma dipped into the transfer portal in search of reinforcements. The Sooners came back with Jake Maikkula and Luke Baklenko from Stanford, as well as Derek Simmons from Western Carolina. For everyone involved, I hope these guys can make a real impact and give this offense a fighting chance moving forward.
If it sounds like the Sooners were busy in the portal, well, you’re not wrong. Alongside the reinforcements I’ve already mentioned, the offense got another major weapon acquisition in the form of former Cal running back Jaydn Ott. Ott, a former All-Conference player, will add some much-needed experience and juice to an offense that can use all the help it can get. He was arguably the top spring portal window acquisition and signifies the all-in nature of the Sooners this season.
In 2024, Oklahoma had one of the more fearsome defenses in the country. That unit suffered key losses through graduation and the portal, but should still be formidable this time around.
Defensive end R Mason Thomas totaled nine sacks and 12.5 TFL last season en route to All-SEC recognition. Corner Eli Bowen earned Freshman All-American honors and senior safety Robert Spears-Jennings is a force to be reckoned with.
Up front, promising former five-star David Stone is back after a brief flirtation with the transfer portal.
Keys to the Game
Can Bryce Underwood handle a nasty Oklahoma defense? I think this game will be decided by how Underwood plays. If he plays well (and the Michigan defense holds up its end of the bargain), perhaps Michigan can pull the upset.
Final Verdict
I have a hard time thinking Underwood can go on the road in front of a raucous crowd and deliver in just his second-career start. I feel like Venables is going to dial up some truly diabolical stuff to mess with the freshman.
Kansas vs. Missouri
Kansas enters this matchup after an exceptionally strong close to the 2024 season and a good start to 2025. The story of last season was one-score losses, in which the Jayhawks had five. If KU can reverse course in close games, it wouldn’t be shocking to see this group make some noise in the Big 12.
Quarterback Jalon Daniels returns after a strong close to last season. When healthy, he’s one of the most exciting and best quarterbacks in the conference. Running back Devin Neal is off to the NFL, but Daniel Hishaw Jr. is back and out for blood.
Former OC Jeff Grimes left for Wisconsin, which led to head coach Lance Leipold appointing co-OCs Jim Zebrowski and Matt Lubick. So far, the pairing has made the offense a little more fun and free-flowing, and it’s shown through two games.
The defense is a bit of a wild card. The defensive line is a point of strength, with plenty of newcomers in other positions. If the transfers up front hit, that group could be good enough to make this unit pretty solid. This will be the first big test for this group after a pair of relatively easy games out of the gate.
Missouri cruised to a big victory in Week 1, and I suspect Penn State transfer Beau Pribula will be the full-time starter moving forward. The Mizzou offense is one built on transfers, with the Tigers hauling in WR Kevin Coleman Jr. (Mississippi State), Xavier Lloyd (Illinois State) and running back Ahmad Hardy (ULM).
On defense, Mizzou will look to build off a strong 2024 campaign. The Tigers return seven starters, and also brought in six FBS starters from other teams, including linebacker and Big 12 Defensive Freshman of the Year Josiah Trotter (West Virginia) and star safety Jalen Catalon (UNLV).
Keys to the Game
I’m really curious to see how Mizzou tries to contain Jalon Daniels and this fearsome running game. I also don’t really know what to expect from Mizzou’s offense, having played a cupcake game in Week 1.
Final Verdict
I have a slight lean toward Kansas. I’m going to trust Jalon Daniels and think the Jayhawks can snag a Border War victory on the road.
Games I’m Keeping An Eye On 👀
James Madison vs. Louisville - This is a fun one, especially for a Friday night!
Army vs. Kansas State - I’d be scared to death if I were a Kansas State fan.
Baylor vs. SMU - Can Baylor get right after getting mauled by Auburn’s run game?
Arizona State vs. Mississippi State - Can the Bulldogs avoid getting embarrassed?
The Brent Musburger Gambling Guide
My official locks of the week. (Lines are locked in at the time of writing)
Overall: -1 units
Baylor vs. -3.5 SMU - Gimme the Ponies in a big early-season spot.
-9.5 Ole Miss vs. Kentucky - Kentucky’s offense stinks.
Fresno State vs. Oregon State OVER 47.5 - Feels like a close game where both teams score some points.
-6.5 Arizona State vs. Mississippi State - MSU’s defense ain't got it like that.