Week 13 - The Call Sheet
Big 12 Judgement Day, Indiana vs. The World and matchup from a bygone era.
5-Wide
The 5 games you’re not gonna wanna miss this weekend.
No. 5 Indiana vs. No. 2 Ohio State
It’s the game we’ve all been waiting for.
For weeks, the undefeated boys from Bloomington and their lackluster strength of schedule have been a hot topic of conversation. College football prognosticators far and wide have uttered statements like:
“I’m not sure Indiana is College Football Playoff material.”
“They’re going to get destroyed when they play a real team.”
“I’d take the sixth-best SEC team over Indiana.”
All I’ll say at this time is thank God we get to settle this debate on the field.
I’m really excited to see the upstart Hoosiers against the juggernaut Ohio State Buckeyes in a Big 10 title game decider in late November. It’s the type of thing most Hoosier fans couldn’t have dreamed of before the arrival of head coach Curt Cignetti and yet here we are.
On the field, I can’t wait to see how the Indiana offense matches up with the Ohio State defense. The Hoosiers’ offense spent much of the season blowing teams out, with the only close call coming in a 20-15 victory over Michigan two weeks ago. This unit has been precise, ultra-effective and downright ruthless at times. Outside of his thumb injury, quarterback Kurtis Rourke has looked unflappable. He’s the main reason why this unit ranks #1 in the country in Net EPA/Play and third in Offensive Success.
Label me as curious and intrigued to see the Indiana passing attack against the Ohio State secondary. The Buckeyes boast a wealth of talent on the backend, including transfer safety Caleb Downs. Can Ohio State clamp the Indiana pass game? And if the passing game goes south, can Indiana run the ball effectively enough to keep this thing close?
Ohio State, for all its talent, is not a behemoth on the offensive line. At times, this unit has struggled to sustain blocks and hammer home the run game. In recent weeks, however, this group has looked better (post-Oregon) and I suspect this group can hold up OK against Indiana’s front seven.
The Buckeyes are clear favorites (-13) and might have an edge entering the game. But I’m hesitant to completely write off Indiana. This group feels resilient and will surely play with a big chip on its shoulder.
If Indiana does lose, I hope it’s by a manageable margin. If the Hoosiers keep the final score between 17 points or fewer, it has a strong argument to remain in the College Football Playoff field despite the weak SOS and no conference title appearance.
My head says Ohio State, but my heart says Indiana. Can’t wait to see this one play out.
No. 6 BYU vs. Arizona State
Last week, previously undefeated BYU lost in an almost unimaginable fashion. The Cougars dropped a 17-13 heartbreaker to red-hot Kansas. But that doesn’t tell the full story. What does tell the story is how the Cougars lost.
BYU lost to Kansas because the Jayhawks pooch punted a ball that ricocheted off a BYU player’s helmet and was later recovered by the kicking team. One play later, KU punched in a touchdown and that was all she wrote.
College football, am I right?
Undefeated no more, BYU faces a tall task in taking on another red-hot Big 12 team in Arizona State. Arizona State has won five of its last six games and boasts a prolific offensive attack, led by running back Cam Skattebo and quarterback Sam Leavitt. Skattebo has been one of the best rushers in the country for much of the year, while Leavitt is arguably the best-performing quarterback the general population doesn’t recognize.
I’ll be honest, BYU has been playing with fire in recent weeks so it wasn’t a huge shock to see it get beat last week. And if you can’t tell, I have serious concerns with this team’s ability to get off the mat and bounce back against a tough ASU team on the road.
This game has massive implications, with the winner remaining alive in the Big 12 title game hunt and the loser eliminated. I’m riding the hot hand (literally) and siding with the Sun Devils. I suspect the one-two punch of Skattebo and Leavitt will be too much for an undisciplined BYU defense.
No. 17 Colorado vs. Kansas
Speaking of hot hands, Colorado has won seven of its last eight games and is just two wins away from representing the league in the Big 12 conference. What a far cry from the three-ring circus this group was last season.
Kansas is no slouch either, pulling back-to-back upsets against Iowa State and BYU over the last two weeks. Quarterback Jalon Daniels has finally looked the part. The defense is getting stops. And running back Devin Neal has been on a tear, suddenly transforming this offense into a real threat in the ground game.
This game has the feel of one that could go any number of ways.
Colorado could boat-race KU with its prolific passing attack and decent to good defense.
KU could ground and pound its way to a rock-fight victory.
Or, we get the best and both worlds, where this one is a back-and-forth affair, where CU is slinging it around and KU is pounding the rock. Sounds pretty fun!
I give Colorado the slight edge here, if for nothing more than I think when quarterback Shedeur Sanders and WR/DB Travis Hunter are truly humming, this team is really, really good. CU just has top-end talent that most teams just can’t match up with and I think that’s the case here.
Keep an eye on how Colorado’s defensive line holds up in the run game. If KU can gain traction on the ground and keep Shedeur Sanders on the sidelines, it can win this game. If it turns into a shootout, I like the Buffaloes.
No. 24 Army vs. No. 8 Notre Dame
Army vs. Notre Dame in Yankee Stadium…what is this the 1930s?
In an effort to respect the troops, I will try not to say anything too disparaging about Army. That said, I do not feel good about the Black Knights’ chances against Notre Dame this weekend.
To win, Army needs to control the clock, cause havoc/get stops on defense and play far and away its best game of the season. And even then, it might not be enough.
I just do not see Army being able to hold up to Notre Dame’s physicality and discipline on defense. Sure, the criticism of Notre Dame’s offense is warranted and there could be some slip-ups there. But even so, I don’t think the Irish will have a hard time dismantling Army.
I suspect Army scores fewer than 21 points and loses handily.
No. 11 Ole Miss vs. Florida
Ole Miss has the world at its feet. The Rebels are riding high and look poised to make a College Football Playoff appearance–all without running the risk of a loss in the SEC title game. After dismantling Georgia a few weeks ago, it was clear this season was shaping up to be a memorable one for the Rebels.
What could go wrong, right?
Across the field from the Rebels on Saturday is a Florida team fresh off its biggest win of the season. Last week, Florida ran rough shot over LSU, destroying the Tigers and turning LSU head coach Brian Kelly into a meme again.
To be clear, I doubt that Ole Miss will lose this game. The offense has looked good in recent weeks and the defense has hit a totally different gear thanks to its ability to rush the passer.
But never say never in the SEC.
Florida will hope promising quarterback DJ Lagway can play the game of his life against a stout Ole Miss defense. Can Florida replicate what it did last week against LSU? Does Ole Miss run the risk of looking ahead to the College Football Playoff?
Give me the Rebels on the road, in a closer-than-expected game.
The Brent Musburger Gambling Guide
My official locks of the week. (Lines are locked in at the time of writing)
+1 unit on the season
-7.5 James Madison vs. Appalachian State - I’m riding with the Dukes once again.
Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State UNDER 68.5 - Okie State has the look of a team that has quit on Gundy.
-6.5 USC vs. UCLA - I’m riding with Jayden Maiava.
What I’m Reading This Season
SID Sports - Don’t forget to subscribe to Griffin Olah’s SID Sports newsletter. As a former Divison I sports information director, Olah has a great grasp of the sport and I really enjoy his work.
2201 Kimball Ave | Cameron Morgan - 2201 Kimball Ave is essential reading for all followers of Kansas State football. As a lifelong K-State fan and former player, Cameron brings a unique and thoughtful approach to the analysis of the Wildcats' football team. His newsletters are rational and insightful and I genuinely learn something new with every newsletter.
Split Zone Duo | Alex Kirshner, Richard Johnson and Steven Godfrey - SZD is essential reading and following for CFB ball knowers. Godfrey, Richard and Alex are the Holy Trinity for college football analysis and insight. Each member brings a unique flavor to the conversation, which makes for insightful and downright hilarious banter about the sport we all love. If I had someone ask me where to start for smarter college football coverage, SZD is where I'd send them.