5-Wide
The 5 games you’re not gonna wanna miss this weekend.
Tulane vs. Navy
Tulane is the best (and arguably most fun) team that no one is talking about. The Green Wave are 8-2 and 6-0 in the American Athletic Conference. One of its two losses came by one score against No. 19 Kansas State (the other by two touchdowns at Oklahoma), and if it weren’t for Boise State, Tulane would likely be a trendy G5 College Football Playoff pick.
Why is no one talking about Tulane? Well, I think it’s a byproduct of Boise State being exceptional and fellow AAC mate Army also being good and undefeated. Tulane quarterback Darian Mensah is a true dual threat and makes that offense extremely fun to watch.
I’m really looking forward to this matchup against Navy. It’s essentially an eliminator and will, in all likelihood, determine who will take on Army in the American Athletic Conference title game. Fun stuff!
If you can’t tell, I’m pretty high on Tulane and for that reason, I like the Green Wave in this matchup. I suspect Mensah will be a handful for that small Navy defense and that Tulane can score some points in a hurry. As always with service academy teams, however, the clock is a factor.
Can Navy run the ball, move the chains and drain the clock? Ordinarily, I’d say yes. This time around, I lean no. I suspect Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall will have this defense ready to go and that Tulane will do enough to get off the field on crucial downs.
Before the last two weeks, Navy was a great story. The Midshipmen were riding high with an undefeated record. But then Notre Dame happened, and the following week, Navy lost an inexplicable one to Rice after the Owls fired their coach. Ouch.
I like Tulane to take care of business and win comfortably.
No. 23 Clemson vs. No. 18 Pitt
Bad news, Pitt fans. I have a feeling this one is going to hurt.
Fresh off back-to-back losses against a red-hot SMU team and a suddenly bowl-curious Virginia team, Pitt is looking to stop the bleeding and not let the season get away from it.
Across the sidelines, we have a Clemson team that got walloped by Lousiville and really hasn’t beaten any team of note in 2024. Something has got to give.
With only one loss, Clemson desperately needs to win to keep pace with Miami and SMU and give themselves a shot at the ACC title game. Despite the lack of big wins, Clemson is still a solid team. That defense has talent and quarterback Cade Klubnik has looked good against not-very-good competition.
Keep an eye on Clemson running back Phil Mafah. Mafah is approaching the 1,000-yard mark on the season and I suspect he’ll be a big part of the game plan on Saturday. I think Clemson will lean on the run game and attempt to pressure Pitt quarterback Eli Holstein.
I am not a Pitt believer and I suspect Clemson will handily win this game. The spread currently sits at 10 points and if I’m putting money down, I’d likely take the Tigers and lay the points.
Arizona State vs. Kansas State
I love Arizona State’s menacing running back Cam Skattebo and I’m not afraid to admit it.
Why am I intrigued to watch this matchup in particular? I want to see if Kansas State can stop the run. Two weeks ago against Houston, the Cougars were inefficient, but effective, on the ground. I suspect the Sun Devils will be a bit more efficient and probably look to feed Skattebo.
Arizona State is a great story this year. The Sun Devils were picked damn near last in the Big 12 and I thought they wouldn’t win more than two games. Here we are in the crunch time of the season and the boys from Temple already have six wins. What an exceptional job by Kenny Dillingham!
For Kansas State, I’m curious to see where the offense goes from here. Quarterback Avery Johnson struggled against Houston, and the offense as a whole could not run the ball against the Cougars. Kansas State mustered just 89 yards on 34 carries. Gross!
If Kansas State can establish the run again and bring a level of balance to the offense, it should win against an upstart Arizona State team. If ASU can run the ball and stuff the Wildcats’ run game, the Sun Devils could snag its biggest win of the year.
Can’t wait to watch this one!
No. 7 Tennessee vs. No. 3 Georgia
Happy SEC eliminator to all who celebrate!
You might think I’m crazy, but I do not believe both of these teams can make it into the College Football Playoff, no matter how this game breaks. If things go chalk and Tennesee wins, the hard part is out of the way and the Vols will likely be in the Field of 12.
On the other hand, if Georgia wins, we have a whole new set of worms. With a win, Georgia would have victories over both Texas and Tennessee and a close loss to Alabama. That’s three playoff-adjacent teams. Tennessee would have a win against Alabama on its resume, but the next best win is…who?
The CFP committee is a bit unpredictable right now, but we will surely have a mess of a selection if things break correctly. If Georgia wins, I suspect we’ll see all three of Texas, Georgia and Alabama represent the SEC, plus perhaps one more. We shall see.
On the field, I’m curious to watch the line of scrimmage in this one. Tennessee has a vicious defensive line, and for the last few weeks, Georgia has done a poor job protecting the quarterback or running the ball. UGA will surely need to do a better job running the ball on first and second down if it hopes to win.
For Tennessee, I’m curious to see how Nico Iamaleava plays in a big spot. He hasn’t played particularly well in big games. He also got a concussion last week, although I suspect he plays. Which Nico are we getting? Your guess is as good as mine.
No. 12 Boise State vs. San Jose State
San Jose State has very quietly put together a nice season under first-year coach Ken Niumatalolo. The Spartans are 6-3 and it’s not out of the realm of possibility it reaches the seven or eight-win mark. That’s fun stuff!
I want to watch this game, largely because Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty is awesome and that is good enough for me.
Outside of #JeantyWatch, I’m curious to see how the Spartans approach this game from a defensive perspective. In recent weeks, teams have stacked the box against Boise State, forcing the Broncos to throw the ball downfield. Nevada did a nice job of that last week and it kept the game close because Boise State has a stinky downfield passing game.
I’m just hopeful Jeanty has another huge day on the ground and that his Heisman odds continue to climb.
Games I’m Keeping An Eye On 👀
LSU vs. Florida - No way LSU could lose again, right? Right?
Nebraska vs. USC - Can new offensive coordinator Dana Holgerson inject some energy into a lifeless Nebraska offense?
Utah vs. Colorado - Colorado has looked awesome in recent weeks. Can the Buffs keep it up against an angry Utah offense?
Montana State vs. UC Davis - We've got ourselves a certified FCS banger, folks!
The Brent Musburger Gambling Guide
My official locks of the week. (Lines are locked in at the time of writing)
-14 Liberty vs. UMASS - Liberty should win handily against a team like UMASS, come on now.
-3.5 JMU vs. ODU - Big win for the Dukes incoming!
-6.5 Tulane vs. Navy - Let’s go, Darian Mensah!
What I’m Reading This Season
SID Sports - Don’t forget to subscribe to Griffin Olah’s SID Sports newsletter. As a former Divison I sports information director, Olah has a great grasp of the sport and I really enjoy his work.
2201 Kimball Ave | Cameron Morgan - 2201 Kimball Ave is essential reading for all followers of Kansas State football. As a lifelong K-State fan and former player, Cameron brings a unique and thoughtful approach to the analysis of the Wildcats' football team. His newsletters are rational and insightful and I genuinely learn something new with every newsletter.
Split Zone Duo | Alex Kirshner, Richard Johnson and Steven Godfrey - SZD is essential reading and following for CFB ball knowers. Godfrey, Richard and Alex are the Holy Trinity for college football analysis and insight. Each member brings a unique flavor to the conversation, which makes for insightful and downright hilarious banter about the sport we all love. If I had someone ask me where to start for smarter college football coverage, this SZD is where I'd send them.