Week 11 - The Call Sheet
SEC Saturday and a pair of Big 12 title game deciders.
5-Wide
The 5 games you’re not gonna wanna miss this weekend.
No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 16 Ole Miss
The numbers indicate this will be a close one. Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin has been feisty in recent weeks, and I have a feeling he knows this is a must-win not only for this version of the Rebels but for his SEC coaching career as a whole.
Ole Miss has played well in recent weeks. Really well. Last week, the Rebels played perhaps their most complete game in the Kiffin era in a total dismantling of Arkansas. Georgia, on the other hand, has been trending in the opposite direction. Despite a monster win on the road against Texas, quarterback Carson Beck has suddenly become a turnover merchant, tossing INTs like I was tossing out candy on Halloween night.
All that said, I refuse to pick Ole Miss here. Lane Kiffin and this team need to prove they can win a big game.
Despite Georgia’s lackluster play in recent weeks, particularly on offense, this team has a defense, that, on its day, is the best in the country. What the Bulldogs did to the Texas offense was something special. If this defense can get up and bring it, I suspect it can do something similar to Ole Miss.
Scumbag quarterback Jaxson Dart needs to have a big game and cement his status as a big game player in Oxford—enough with blowing out bad teams. I need to see a big-time performance on the biggest stage.
I suspect this one is a knock-down, drag-out fight to the end. I have a weird feeling we see a late defensive touchdown from Georgia and the Bulldogs win a close one.
No. 21 Colorado vs. Texas Tech
Last week could not have broken better for Colorado. While the Buffaloes were at home on a bye week, the Big 12 turned upside down, with surprise upsets of previously undefeated Iowa State and a one-loss Kansas State team.
The path is now there for Colorado to make a push for the Big 12 title game and potentially beyond. Now comes the fun part.
Last week, Texas Tech got up in a big way in its upset over Iowa State in Ames. The Red Raiders used a 12-play, 71-yard game-winning drive to knock off the previously undefeated Cyclones.
My big question surrounding Texas Tech, and its viability to win back-to-back big games, is whether they can muster up that big game energy two weeks in a row. That is not a small feat, so I’m curious to see if they bring it early.
Colorado’s offense has been humming lately and the Shedeur Sanders arc has been fun to watch. It’s not a stretch to say he’s probably the best quarterback in the Big 12 and one of the better ones in the country post-Nebraska loss. The Buffaloes have sort of refused to establish much of a run game, which is sort of a testament to how good Sheduer is because he’s a sitting duck for most of the game.
Colorado’s defense will need to bring its ‘A’ game against the Red Raiders. Texas Tech running back Tahj Brooks is legit and if he can have another monster night (like he did in Ames) it’ll go a long way in helping his team control the clock and keep that CU offense on the sidelines.
No. 11 Alabama vs. No. 14 LSU
Ahh, the smell of a good ole November SEC elimination clash. Saturday night, one of these teams will be eliminated from College Football Playoff contention, and the other will live to fight another day.
Which team will face which fate? Your guess is as good as mine.
This game has a big toss-up feel and the numbers back up that line of thinking. Alabama is a 2.5-point favorite despite being on the road. How much faith do you have in Kalen DeBoer coming out victorious in a must-win game at night in Death Valley? On the other side, how confident are you in Brian Kelly winning a big game in a big spot? Somebody has to win…right?
I don’t have a strong lean on this game. Both teams have shown the ability to play well in big spots and wither when things get tight. Alabama and LSU possess a lot of similar qualities and I’m just not sure which team comes out on top.
It feels obvious, but I suspect the direction of this matchup will be decided by quarterback play. Milroe will likely need to will the Crimson Tide to victory both through the air and with his legs. Conversely, LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier will have to play much better than he did a few weeks ago against A&M. He’s shown flashes of being a big-game quarterback, but we’ll need to see it Saturday night.
No. 9 BYU vs. Utah
Look, this is a bit of a strange shout, but hear me out.
BYU has been flawless this season. The Cougars sit at 8-0 entering the Holy War and appear leaps and bounds ahead of a struggling, post-Cam Rising Utah team that has mustered just four wins and one conference victory.
And yet, this type of upset would be so painfully on brand for the Big 12 that it hurts.
For the record, I don’t necessarily think Utah will knock off an undefeated BYU team in a late-night Holy War matchup, but it wouldn’t shock me if it happened. Utah still plays an aggressive style of defense. And while the offense has fallen off a cliff without Rising, it just takes one game.
Let’s keep an eye on this. Traditional wisdom suggests that BYU rolls big. Let’s see what happens.
Michigan vs. No. 8 Indiana
Indiana has outscored its opponents by a jaw-dropping 296 points through nine games in 2024. Strength of schedule aside, that’s an amazing feat and further proves this Hoosiers team is legitimate.
Indiana will face a sizeable test on Saturday when it lines up across from a stiff Michigan defense. The Wolverines offense has been lackluster all season, but the defense is strong and boasts a ton of formidable athletes. Can Michigan limit what Indiana wants to do offensively and turn it into a rock fight?
Conversely, can Indiana keep its eyes and focus on this game and not get caught looking ahead to a monster matchup against Ohio State soon?
Hoosier head coach Curt Cignetti wins. That’s all he does. What he’s done with this program is nothing short of amazing. I really hope to see it continue.
Last week, Indiana fell behind early to a scrappy Michigan State team, only to respond with 47 straight points in a blowout victory. The Hoosiers will want to avoid another slow start against Michigan. In particular, look for Indiana to try and start fast, build a lead and force the Wolverines out of their comfort zone with obvious passing situations.
I like Indiana to keep the good vibes going and to beat a struggling Michigan team.
Games I’m Keeping An Eye On 👀
South Carolina vs. No. 24 Vanderbilt - I’m curious to see if South Carolina can bring it two weeks in a row. Emotional wins are hard to follow.
No. 18 Army vs. North Texas - Army quarterback Bryson Daily missed last week’s game against rivals Air Force. Can the Black Knights’ star man return and get right before a big game at Notre Dame looming?
Arkansas State vs. Louisiana - This is a big Sun Belt tilt. The Ragin’ Cajuns are undefeated, and with a win, likely lock up a Sun Belt title berth. Let’s see if the Red Wolves can make a mess of things.
The Brent Musburger Gambling Guide
My official locks of the week. (Lines are locked in at the time of writing)
+1 unit overall on the season.
-6.5 Iowa vs. UCLA - I like Iowa to keep scoring points (can’t believe I just typed that) and for UCLA to have a let-down after beating Nebraska last week.
Arkansas State vs. -14 Louisiana - Ragin’ Cajun, baby.
BYU vs. +5 Utah - This one has weird written all over it. I like the Utes to keep it close.
What I’m Reading This Season
SID Sports - Don’t forget to subscribe to Griffin Olah’s SID Sports newsletter. As a former Divison I sports information director, Olah has a great grasp of the sport and I really enjoy his work.
2201 Kimball Ave | Cameron Morgan - 2201 Kimball Ave is essential reading for all followers of Kansas State football. As a lifelong K-State fan and former player, Cameron brings a unique and thoughtful approach to the analysis of the Wildcats' football team. His newsletters are rational and insightful and I genuinely learn something new with every newsletter.
Split Zone Duo | Alex Kirshner, Richard Johnson and Steven Godfrey - SZD is essential reading and following for CFB ball knowers. Godfrey, Richard and Alex are the Holy Trinity for college football analysis and insight. Each member brings a unique flavor to the conversation, which makes for insightful and downright hilarious banter about the sport we all love. If I had someone ask me where to start for smarter college football coverage, this SZD is where I'd send them.
I have a bad feeling that the Indiana-Michigan game is going to be nothing but a trap for Indiana. It's like a fight with Bernard Hopkins. If you beat him, you've beaten an old man, but if you lose, you've just gotten beat up by an old man. Michigan is dead, we think. Therefore, a win means absolutely nothing to the Hoosiers, but what would the committee (who have already declared their hatred for Indiana with a disrespectful eighth place ranking) think of a loss against the disgraced former national champions?
This is the opposite of fair, but going to college football for fairness is like going to the desert for a refreshing drink. I hope you're right, and they just beat Michigan by 20. It will do nothing but kick the can further down the road, but at least it won't give the committee an excuse to boot out Indiana, which they're clearly looking for a reason to do. It's a shame such a great team has to be backed into a corner like this. I'll be rooting hard for the Hoosiers.