The CFP first round games weren't always competitive...perhaps they'll rarely ever be.

Why the recent history of the FCS playoffs could be a predictor for future early-round College Football Playoff games.

Through six quarters of the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff era, it was understandable for die-hards, casuals and pundits across the country to be left scratching their heads and asking themselves… was this what we’ve all been waiting for?

Expansion was supposed to make things different. More teams equaled more big-time matchups. Greater inclusion was supposed to mean greater chances for underdogs to pull off memorable upsets. But through six, then eight, then ten quarters of football, the outcomes felt all too familiar.

Notre Dame walloped feel-good story Indiana under the lights on Friday night. Penn State mounted a four-score first-half lead and never looked back against SMU. Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin fired off his second and later third snarky tweet about how uncompetitive the games had been and eluded to how undeserving the boys from Bloomington and Dallas looked compared to his team sitting at home.

Even as the afternoon turned to evening and all eyes were on modern heavyweights Texas and Clemson, the big game in the biggest football state in the country was more hat, than cattle and never got closer than two scores.

For as long as I can remember, the college football community debated the merits of a playoff system. The BCS got tiresome and computer rankings got confusing. Let a committee of experts decide. That’ll get us the best teams and the best matchups. At least, so we thought.

I’m not here to debate the merit of a four or 12-team playoff. Nor am I here to bloviate on whether Ole Miss, Alabama, South Carolina or any other outside-looking-in team deserved to be in over the current field.

What I am here to say is that perhaps our perception of the College Football Playoff–especially the opening round games–was never going to live up to the hype and that perhaps it never will.

Using the recent history of the lesser-consumed FCS Playoffs, along with Bud Elliott’s Blue-Chip Ratio, I’m here to argue that despite the resounding hype of the new 12-team College Football Playoff, we’ll likely continue to see more opening-round blowouts and fewer upsets than anticipated.

What could we learn from the recent history of the FCS Playoffs?

Despite being worlds apart, FCS football isn’t all that different from the Division I ranks. There’s the money, eyeballs and caliber of players (among other things), but both divisions are largely top-heavy, especially so in the FCS. The Division I ranks thrive off regular season chaos, but that level of chaos often dissipates when it’s time to crown a champion. That last part is also true for FCS.

I did a deep-dive on the last five years of the FCS Playoffs to see if there were any potential (key phrasing here) parallels that could be drawn from the FCS second-round playoff matchups (16-team field versus the 12-team CFP field) and whether they could be used as a prediction tool for future College Football Playoff opening round outcomes.

Note: Before 2001, FCS/D-1AA only had 16 total participants in the playoff field. After 2000, the field doubled to 32 teams and featured the top eight seeds receiving first-round byes. This is why I used data from the Round of 16 post-2000.

This is far from a perfect exercise, but I believe there might be some merit to what I’m getting at. Stick with me.

Looking at the last five years (2000-2024), I tallied the margin of victory for every Round of 16 FCS game, averaged it out by year and noted every instance where an “upset” occurred based on playoff seed. Here are the results:

2024 - 18.53 margin of victory; 0 upsets

2023 - 18.63 margin of victory; 1 upset

2022 - 17.38 margin of victory; 0 upsets

2021 - 15.38 margin of victory; 1 upset

2000 - 20.75 margin of victory; 3 upsets

Average across the last five seasons: 18.13 margin of victory

Through the four 2024 College Football Playoff opening-round games, the average margin of victory is 19 points. We also saw zero upsets.

What does this exercise tell us? Maybe something, maybe nothing?

I think this data can tell us a lot more when paired with Bud Elliott’s Blue-Chip Ratio rankings.

What is the Blue-Chip Ratio and how does it impact the national title race?

From CBS Sports article: Blue-Chip Ratio 2024: These 16 college football teams can actually win the national championship

CBS Sports personality Bud Elliott created the Blue-Chip Ratio, and since it’s inception in 2013 has been referenced by all major broadcast networks and closely monitored by head coaches and administrators. It’s also featured in the EA Sports College Football video game. Although it's not the most complex calculation, it's an excellent method for identifying the top 10% of teams that realistically have a shot at winning the title.

What is the Blue-Chip Ratio?

In simple terms: To win the national championship, college football teams need to sign more four- and five-star recruits (AKA "Blue Chips") than two- and three-star players over the previous four recruiting classes.

The Blue-Chip Ratio is not…

A requirement to make the College Football Playoff. While related, making the College Football Playoff and winning it are two drastically different accomplishments in terms of difficulty. Schedule strength plays a much bigger role in the former. Plenty of teams outside the BCR threshold made the four-team College Football Playoff (typically getting crushed, by the way), and many more will make the new 12-team field.

A substitute for player development, culture or coaching. All of those elements matter and are necessary to win the national title. The BCR is simply the minimum historical standard of recruiting necessary to win it all.

To be used to pick games. It is not an effective predictive measure in single-game settings.

How has this stat performed in the past?

• 2023: Michigan won it all with a 54% mark.

• 2022: Georgia took home the title in dominant fashion with a 77% ratio.

• 2021: Georgia had an 80% BCR and won it all, beating the No. 1 BCR team, Alabama, in the title game. Three of the four CFP teams were BCR teams; Cincinnati was the first party crasher since 2017.

• 2020: Alabama had an 83% BCR and won it all. All four CFP teams were BCR schools.

• 2019: LSU won it with a 64% BCR. All four CFP teams were BCR schools.

• 2018: Clemson took it home with a 68% mark. All four CFP teams were BCR schools.

• 2017: Alabama won it all with an incredible 80% mark.

• 2016: Clemson took home the title after signing 52% blue chips in the 2013-16 classes.

• 2015: Alabama had a 77% mark.

• 2014: Ohio State won the title with a 68%.

• 2013: Florida State was at 53%.

• 2012: Alabama was at 71%.

• 2011: 'Bama won the first of its back-to-back titles ... also with a 71% mark.

In 2024, there were a total of 16 teams that met the Blue-Chip Ratio threshold needed to win the national title in the modern era of college football.

Of the teams included in the 12-team 2024 College Football Playoff field, only seven met that threshold. Those teams are: Ohio State, Oregon, Georgia, Texas, Notre Dame, Clemson and Penn State. That means that Boise State, Arizona State, Tennessee, SMU and Indiana are not good enough to actually win a national title.

What does this all mean?

I think using the Blue-Chip Ratio, especially in the context of the 12-team College Football Playoff, actually dispels the illusion that more teams than ever have a chance to win the national title. In fact, I think this couldn’t be further from the truth.

The new 12-team format gives us more teams, more storylines and more big games to talk about…it does not, however, equate to more postseason parity.

The NIL era has been impactful on several fronts, and in my opinion, has led to a dispersment of talent that lends itself to regular season parity. We saw a lot of that in 2024 and will likely continue to see that moving forward. It does not, however, mean that just because we have NIL and an expanded playoff field we should suddenly expect upsets or even close games between Blue-Chip Ratio teams and non-Blue-Chip Ratio teams in the postseason.

Why upsets and close games might be few and far between in future CFP opening-round games.

One quarter through the final 2024 College Football Playoff opening round matchup, ninth-seed Tennessee found themselves gasping for air. Despite this being the eight-nine matchup between Rocky Top and Ohio State, the Vols found themselves down three scores early and were on the ropes in The Shoe.

The players looked stunned. Head coach Josh Heupel looked befuddled. In a way, it was a microcosm of the entire opening round weekend for higher-seeded teams.

Truth be told, no one truly knows what the future might hold for the College Football Playoff.

Maybe the sport will hold serve and the field will stay at twelve teams for the foreseeable future. Perhaps college football will do away with conference title games and expand to 32 teams, just like the FCS. Or maybe the weight of greed and imperialism wins out and the sport splinters into a Big 10 and SEC-led Super League that alters the very fabric of the sport as we know it. There’s a lot of game left, some might say.

I’m happy to be wrong, but I fully believe that the expanded playoff field will not equal more parity. Buckle up, college football fans. We might be in for plenty more first-round blowouts and a lot fewer upsets than anticipated.