Taking stock of the 2024 CFB regular season

Let's revisit my preseason predictions and ponder lessons learned.

First of all, I want to say thank you for reading and rockin’ with me throughout the season. This has been an unprecedented year for Three-Point Stance and I’m thankful for all of you.

While the 2024 season isn’t quite over yet, the end is near. It’s a sad time. Every year, college football comes and goes faster than ever before.

Thankfully, we still have bowl games and the College Football Playoff to look forward to as a last hurrah on the 2024 season.

Before we grab our shovels and throw dirt on the 2024 season, let’s hop in the time machine and go back to August. Let’s revisit my 2024 Bulls and Bears predictions, see whether they were a hit or a miss and examine how we think about seasons moving forward.

Bulls

NC State

Entering the season, NC State ranks 29th according to Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings. Thanks to strong returning production, a quality transfer quarterback in Grayson McCall and a favorable schedule, I see no reason why the Wolfpack can’t rattle off 10 wins and be in the College Football Playoff hunt.

We’re coming out of the gates with a gigantic miss. If you don’t laugh you’ll cry.

Despite a strong level of returning production, things really fell apart at the seams for NC State in 2024. Transfer quarterback Grayson McCall struggled mightily when healthy, and later had to medically retire after a severe concussion.

Entering the season, I fully expected the offense to carry this team and for the defense to sort of just exist. Boy, was I wrong. Even with McCall, NC State just barely eeked out wins against Western Carolina, La Tech and Northern Illinois. Couple that with blowout losses to Tennessee and Clemson, and this team just did not resemble anything like an ACC title contender.

The offense finished the year ranked 85th in rushing and 60th in passing. It was just not good enough. Backup-turned-starting quarterback C.J. Bailey flashed some promise, but overall, this team just never got it done against a good team and finished just 6-6.

Missouri

Schedule luck goes a long way in predicting future success, and I like the look of the Tigers’ 2024 slate. Outside of tough road tests at Kyle Field and Tuscaloosa, the schedule appears to be pretty favorable. Is the world ready for back-to-back ten-win Missouri seasons?

So I missed on the whole Brady Cook for Heisman prediction, but I wasn’t terribly far off about this Missouri team as a whole. The Tigers went 9-3 (5-3) and, I correctly predicted they would have a tough time against Texas A&M (lost 41-10) and Alabama (lost 34-0).

Where I was most wrong about Missouri was with the offense. With Cook back under center and returning start receivers Luther Burden III and Theo Weis on the outside, I expected this offense to be a force to be reckoned with and it just flat-out wasn’t. The Tigers’ offense struggled to get out of first gear in most games and was just the 76th-ranked passing offense in the country. The defense, however, was really strong and did a good job of keeping this team in a lot of games.

All in all, nine wins is nine wins and that is nothing to scoff at, especially in the SEC. But I can’t help but feel like Missouri had the oddest vibes for any time that hit the nine-win mark.

Liberty

No need to get too cute here. As long as Liberty competes in the Conference USA and Jamey Chadwell is the head coach, the Flames will win 11 to 12 games per year. This year won’t be any different.

Liberty is far and away the most disappointing team on this list. The Flames boast the biggest NIL budget and have assembled the most talented roster in the Conference USA and yet this group turned around and dropped three conference games. The worst of those three losses came against a previously winless Kennesaw State team, which later fired its coach. Woof.

It was just not a good enough year for Liberty considering the circumstances.

Quarterback Kaidon Salter has already entered the transfer portal. I’m curious to see where Chawell goes from here.

Kansas State

Despite losing offensive coordinator Colin Klein, I think K-State has a great shot to compete for the conference title and make a run at the College Football Playoff. K-State’s defense is always solid, and if the offense can build off Johnson’s potential, I like its potential.

Kansas State finished the year 8-4 (5-3) and was a bit of a mixed bag in 2024.

The Wildcats won seven of their first eight games, and outside a strange, blowout loss in Provo against BYU, looked like a formidable Big 12 title contender. Then the wheels fell off. Kansas State finished the season losing three of four, which included a loss to a below-average Houston team.

Kansas State was really good at running the ball (ranked 18th) and stopping the run (ranked 25th) but struggled to develop a consistent pass game or to defend the pass. A good chunk of my preseason prediction hinged on quarterback Avery Johnson’s development, and although he showed flashes at times, he just never showcased enough as a passer to make that part of the offense a huge threat.

I’m still a fan of Chris Kleiman, and think he can re-tool this team next season and beyond. The great thing about the Big 12 is that we’ll likely see big jumps and dips year-to-year. This year, it was ASU and BYU. Next year, it’ll likely be two other teams representing the league. Kansas State has a solid enough foundation to be a good team in this league.

I’m a little unsure about the Avery Johnson element, though. Rumor is he could be looking to transfer. Perhaps that could be a good exit for both parties? I suppose we’ll see.

UCF and USF

I am not a Florida man, but I’m buying some Florida real estate this year with UCF and USF. Both programs appear to be just frisky enough to cause some headaches and be pretty damn fun in the process. One of the fun aspects of both of these teams is both have the chance to upset in-state big brothers with UCF taking on Florida and USF battling Miami. Let’s keep an eye on both of those matchups

Floriday men are idiots, and perhaps I should’ve known better.

Neither of these teams lived up to the hype. Furthermore, both were quite disappointing in the context of things.

UCF finished second to last in the Big 12 conference, mustering just four wins overall and two wins in the league. The KJ Jefferson quarterback experiment fell flat, leading to an imbalanced offense that could run well but couldn’t attack teams down the field. Running back RJ Harvey was fantastic and finished with over 1,500 yards and 22 touchdowns. But transfer Penny Boone never really got going and was limited to just six games.

Things went so poorly that head coach Gus Malzahn has elected to step down as head coach, instead opting to join a 2-10 Florida State program as offensive coordinator. What a world we live in.

South Florida was equally disappointing, limping to a 6-6 (4-4) record and just barely becoming bowl-eligible. The defense was a huge problem for the Bulls. South Florida finished the year ranked 83rd at stopping the run and a paltry 128th at stopping pass. You just can’t win ball games that way.

Starting quarterback Byrum Brown only played in five games and got benched as the season progressed. How did this team get to six wins? It beat up on a bunch of bad teams. South Florida’s wins were as follows: Bethune Cookman, Southern Miss, UAB, FAU, Charlotte and Tulsa. Four of those teams were so bad they fired their coach already, and you could argue that UAB should fire Trent Dilfer next.

It was just a truly odd season all around for head coach Alex Golesh and his team.

Miami (Ohio)

In 2024, Gabbert is back in the fold and if healthy, I like the Redhawks to repeat as MAC champions. Of course, like every other halfway decent MAC team, Miami (Ohio) got their cupboards raided in the transfer portal, but I suspect it’ll have enough to field a strong team again.

Doubt Chuck Martin at your own risk.

Defense is the name of the game for Chuck Marin-led teams, and this season the Redhawks’ defense did not disappoint. Miami (Ohio) 37th ranked rush defense and 17th-ranked pass defense and it showed down the stretch of the season.

After a pair of tough, close losses to Northwestern and Cincinnati to start the season, Miami (Ohio) went on an absolute tear down the stretch and dominated fellow MAC teams. The Redhawks won their last seven conference games, in large part due to their excellent defense. In that win streak, the Redhawks allowed point totals of fourteen, seven, seven, nine and twelve. Sensational stuff.

Quarterback Brett Gabbert had another strong regular season, finishing with 2,600 passing yards and 21 touchdowns. He is just your prototypical solid MAC quarterback.

The Redhawks got waxed by in-state MAC foe Ohio in the conference title game, but this was still a good year for Chuck Martin’s bunch.

Texas State

Because I loved the offense and potential last year, I’m almost doubling down again this year. I suspect Texas State has a nine or 10-win season and Baylor hires Kinne to right the ship in Waco.

Texas State had a nice season (7-5) but did not quite reach the eight-win threshold it hit in 2023.

I still contend that Texas State was a good team, however. The Bobcats lost a three-point game to Big 12 darling Arizona State early in the season and later lost two other games by one and six points. If the coin flips the other direction, we might’ve had a nine or 10-win Texas State team.

The funny part about the Baylor prediction was that Dave Aranda had a fantastic year in Waco, and will stay on as head coach. With that big Texas head coach opening domino yet to fall, Kinne actually inked an extension to stay with Texas State.

If you wanted to point to one area of improvement with Texas State, it would be the defense. That unit leaked points at times and it led to some shootouts that probably could’ve been avoided.

I look forward to the Bobcats snagging another awesome quarterback in the transfer portal and for me to make a similar prediction next year.

Notre Dame

Let’s not mince words: 2024 is the year that Notre Dame and Marcus Freeman need to make a big statement and compete for a national title. There, I said it.

After an 11-1 finish to the regular season, Notre Dame is a shoo-in for the College Football Playoff and has a great chance to make some serious noise. I’ll consider this a win from a prediction standpoint.

Outside of the strange early-season upset at the hands of Northern Illinois, the Irish have been unflappable. The team has been machine-like, using a ball-hawking defense and merciless run game to maul teams at virtually every turn. I’ve been particularly impressed with the offensive line, as I was worried some preseason injuries could really impact that group.

As we look toward the College Football Playoff, I still have a few questions about the offense, mainly centered around quarterback Riley Leonard’s downfield passing ability in big games and whether Notre Dame has enough dudes at receiver.

All that said, it wouldn’t shock me in the slightest to see Notre Dame win a few playoff games and have itself squarely in the national title conversation. Irish head coach Marcus Freeman has done a really nice job this year and it’ll be fun to see him and this group on a big stage.

Bears

BYU

This might just be a me thing, but I don’t love anything about the program right now. In 2023, the Cougars lacked an offensive identity, struggled on both lines and just had bad vibes. Couple that with a pretty difficult schedule this time around and I am just out on BYU. It wouldn’t shock me if Sataki and BYU parted ways late in the season.

I was flat-out wrong about BYU, as I think many college football prognosticators were. Entering the season, I was banking on the Cougars being one of the worst teams in the Big 12, and they were anything but. This team started 9-0 and led the league for much of the season. If it weren’t for a pair of late-season slip-ups against Kansas and Arizona State, 10-win BYU would’ve repped the league in the Big 12 title game and been a College Football Playoff participant.

Perhaps the most surprising aspect of this Cougar team was the defense, which finished in the Top 50 at stopping the run and 19th in defending the pass. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff was also a fun wrinkle. “BY-Jew” as he was affectionately labeled, had a nice year with over 2,700 yards and 19 touchdowns.

Kalani Sataki more than saved his job in 2024. Looking forward, this conference just feels like it could be anyone’s guess who wins it from year to year.

Arizona State

I am not a college football scheduling expert, but a general rule of thumb is that when scheduling games, you should probably try to schedule at least a few gimme games. And yet when I look at ASU’s schedule, I see zero guaranteed wins. Yikes.

Kenny Dillingham might be a good coach, but his team will look awful this year. This feels like a two or three-win situation.

Speaking of anyone’s guess, whew buddy, what a fantastic against-all-odds year from Kenny Dillingham and Arizona State. The Sun Devils ripped through that “zero guaranteed wins” schedule en route to a 10-2 regular and topped it off with a dominant Big 12 title game performance and berth in the College Football Playoff.

It’s not an exaggeration to say that what Kenny Dillingham has done at ASU in two short years (on the back of numerous NCAA sanctions from previous coach Herm Edwards) is a literal miracle. Dillingham is an Arizona State alum and he’s injected a sense of school spirit and belief into this team, school and fanbase and it’s been remarkable to see.

I should’ve known Arizona State was going to be better than expected when it knocked off G5 darling Texas State in Week 3. The Sun Devils were awesome for much of the year, winning seven of their last eight games.

On the field, muscle hamster running back Cam Skattebo was immense, rushing for just shy of 1,400 yards and chipping in 17 touchdowns. Despite battling injuries throughout the year, Skattebo never goes down on first contact and was the lynchpin of this offense week in and week out.

Quarterback Sam Leavitt had a nice year too, and is probably the best quarterback casual fans have never heard of. Leavitt was good in the air and on the ground, finishing with over 2,100 passing yards and 21 TDs with just five interceptions.

It was an exceptional season for Dillingham and the Sun Devils. These types of stories are what make college football the absolute best.

Arkansas

I will not belabor the point: Sam Pittman is going to likely be fired by Halloween and disgraced former Razorbacks head coach turned offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino will take over.

Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman staved off a midseason firing, propelling his team to a pleasant surprise 6-6 season. Pittman is being retained and will roam the sidelines for the Razorbacks in 2025.

The Razorbacks were better than expected but were never truly a threat to win more than six or so games. This Arkansas team was perfectly OK and beat up on a lot of bad teams. The lone upset was a big one, knocking off then No. 4 Tennessee 19-14.

Arkanasas’s defense was a real bright spot in 2024, especially in the run game. The Razorbacks were the 33rd-best defense at stopping the run. In that game against Tennessee in particular, I thought Arkansas did a nice job of slowing down the run game and muddying the passing waters for Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava.

I’m not fully convinced Sam Pittman will make it past 2025 either, but he extends his stay in Fayetteville by at least a year with six wins and that’s not something.

Oklahoma

Schedulemakers must hate the state of Oklahoma because they served the Sooners up with a piping hot shit sandwich schedule. Home/neutral site games against Tennessee, Texas and Alabama will be hard enough. Couple that with road tests at Auburn, Missouri and LSU and this could set up for a less-than-glamorous start in a new league.

Oklahoma got the short end of the stick from the SEC schedulemakers and it showed, with the Sooners just scraping to a 6-6 (2-6) record. Oklahoma had a really hard time down the stretch of the season, losing five of six SEC games to close out the campaign. The lone bright spot during the second half of the season came in the Sooners’ surprising 24-3 upset over Alabama.

By and large, Oklahoma’s problems stemmed from its stinky offense. Head coach Brent Venables did a nice job orchestrating a solid defense, but the offense just let this team down so many times. Flip-flopping quarterbacks did not help. Even in the upset against Alabama, it was the defense, and that unit’s ability to force turnovers and return interceptions for touchdowns, that were the difference.

Oklahoma is already plotting a shakeup to its offense, starting with the hire of Washington State offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle. Despite Jackson Arnold’s promise, I’ll be intrigued to see if Oklahoma dips its toes in the transfer portal for another quarterback before 2025.

Next year is crucial for Venables. Another 6-6-type season will almost certainly force Oklahoma to make a head coaching change. Let’s keep an eye on this space for next season.

Louisville

The Cardinals have a fairly cushy start, but shit gets real with road games against Notre Dame, Clemson and Kentucky. Couple that with tricky home games versus Miami and Georgia Tech, and I just suspect life will be harder this time around.

Louisville could not reach the lofty heights of 2023, but the Cardinals were a perfectly OK to good team, rounding out at 8-4 (5-3).

The offense was good (a Jeff Brohm calling card), finishing 41st in rushing and 20th in passing. Quarterback Tyler Shough was solid when healthy, finishing with almost 3,200 passing yards and 23 touchdowns. Running back Isaac Brown was the real breakthrough candidate from this unit. The freshman burst onto the scene in 2024 and tallied over 1,000 yards and 11 touchdowns during his debut campaign. He’s already good and will surely be a mainstay for this program for the foreseeable future.

As a whole, this team was good but struggled in some crucial, one-score games. All four of its losses came by a single score, with the lone bad loss from that group coming on the road against a bad Stanford team under some ridiculously stupid, late-game penalties courtesy of the Cardinals.

If Louisville can get some better close-game luck in 2025, I see no reason why the Cardinals can’t be in the hunt for the ACC title game.

Florida

I’ve written a lot about Florida and their hellish schedule already. Barring a pretty remarkable upswing, head coach Billy Napier might be updating his LinkedIn as we head into 2025. Label me a Florida pessimist this year.

Billy Napier did something that felt impossible six months ago, winning seven games with arguably the toughest schedule ever assembled. To get to seven wins is nothing short of amazing.

One of the critical components for this team turning things around was plugging in freshmen phenom quarterback DJ Lagway. Lagway was stuck behind starter Graham Mertz for five games before Mertz had a season-ending injury. Injuries are never fun–and you certainly don’t root for them–but because Lagway started getting reps it was a huge win for the Gators.

Freshman quarterbacks rarely looked polished, but I was really impressed with Lagway over the back half of the season. His mobility and downfield passing ability did wonders for this group. Simply put: He’s got the juice.

A ton of credit goes to Napier on this W of a season. Depending on how the schedule breaks next year, I don’t see why Florida can’t be a good team in 2025.

Troy

I hated watching whatever new Troy head coach Gerad Parker was doing as Notre Dame's offensive coordinator. Conversely, I loved what former Troy-turned-Tulane headman Jon Sumrall cooked the last few seasons.

I am just not a Gerad Parker guy and I think Troy will take a step back.

Troy was dreadful this year, finishing 4-8 (3-5) and second to last in the Sun Belt West.

The offense was a huge problem for this group. The Trojans did not rank in the Top 70 in rushing or passing. Without an elite defense (they did not have one), you’re just not going to win games.

Entering the season, I was pretty out on first-year head coach Gerad Parker and I’m not sure I saw anything to make me change my mind.