Is 2025 Mike Gundy's Last Saloon?

On a restructured contract, a lack of elite recruiting and an evolving college football game.

Mike Gundy, head coach of the Oklahoma State Cowboys football team, at the 2017 Big 12 Conference Media Days in Frisco, Texas. - Wikimedia Commons

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Mike Gundy has survived just about everything at Oklahoma State — bad losses, bad press and bad choices.

There was the “I’m a man, I’m 40!” press conference that went viral for all the wrong reasons.

Next came the controversy with the far-right OAN t-shirt that almost led to a player mutiny in 2020.

Then came the DUI remarks, where Gundy brushed aside the behavior of star running back Ollie Gordon.

Through it all, the one constant was winning. But what happens when the wins dry up?

After a dreadful 2024 campaign and a newly restructured contract that gives the OSU brass a clear exit ramp, there are more questions than answers surrounding Gundy and the Cowboys program.

Gundy has pushed all his chips to the center of the table. Does he have one more trick up his sleeve? Or is 2025 setting up to be Mike Gundy’s last saloon in college football?

The Quiet Exit Plan?

Fresh off a 3-9 record and winless Big 12 campaign, Mike Gundy and Oklahoma State were at an impasse.

ESPN's Pete Thamel first reported the two sides were in a "standoff" and had meetings in early December. The school reportedly asked Gundy to take a "significant pay cut" that would also reduce his buyout, which is currently around $25 million.

Speculation grew that Gundy could decline to play ball, forcing the Cowboys’ brass to make a difficult decision. Stick to their guns and ride with Gundy, or unceremoniously force out the best coach in program history.

The two sides eventually reached an agreement to keep Gundy in charge, on OSU’s terms. According to ESPN’s Adam Rittenberg, the deal includes a provision that Gundy, at the request of athletic director Chad Weiberg, be more involved in fundraising and donor initiatives. His salary reduction will be applied toward athlete revenue sharing with the House v. NCAA settlement going into effect just last week.

Another provision in the agreement, also at Weiberg's request, would call for the possible identification and development of a coaching successor, and helping with a coaching transition.

Call it what you like, but these provisions aren’t usually reserved for coaches on a long-term timeline. More than anything, this feels like putting a Band-Aid on a 3-9-sized bullet hole.

There’s absolutely no way that Gundy is/was particularly thrilled about the idea of seizing control. For much of his tenure, he felt like the sheriff in a one-horse town. He called the shots. And despite a lot of nonsense, fans tolerated him and his shenanigans because he was a consistent winner. Hell, even after his not-so-quiet flirtations with big-name SEC jobs, Gundy was welcomed back with open arms because winning cures everything.

But there is a point where the outside noise outweighs the wins. And you have to wonder after 20 years in Stillwater, if the Gundy-Oklahoma State relationship has just run its course.

Have the Cowboys Plateaued Under Gundy?

Winning fixes a lot of problems.

In 20 years in Stillwater, Mike Gundy has done a whole hell of a lot of winning. He’s had double-digit win seasons eight times, the latest coming in 2023. He’s made a bowl game in 18 of his 20 years at the helm of the Cowboys’ program. Even more impressively, he’s suffered losing seasons just twice, once in 2005 (his first year on the job) and in 2024. The only constant, outside of controversy, has been consistent winning.

That said, I don’t think it’s strange or out of bounds to question whether Gundy might’ve lost his fastball.

Last year, the Cowboys struggled mightily against everyone, much less top teams. But in prior years, Oklahoma State has developed a bit of a knack for losing big, important games. Couple that with a lack of elite recruiting momentum, and you have the program in its current state.

If the 2024 season is any indication of where this thing might be headed, I’d advise OSU fans to look away. Last year, Oklahoma State was abysmal in every facet of the game. The offense lacked an identity and failed to build off a stellar 2023 campaign for star running back Ollie Gordon. The defense was atrocious and couldn’t stop a nosebleed. Gundy looked like a shell of himself on the sidelines, watching a team that he didn’t recognize. Nine straight losses to close out a season will do especially cruel things to a prideful man.

Perhaps the most concerning thing, outside of all the losses, is that the Cowboys are consistently struggling to bring in top talent. According to 247 Sports, Oklahoma State ranks just 55th in overall recruiting. OSU ranks 32nd in transfer recruiting. Neither of those numbers suggests that the Cowboys are keeping up with the Joneses when it comes to high-level football recruiting.

Without a path to elite recruits, I’m not sure I see a way out of this thing for Gundy. Sure, in the past, he and the Cowboys have been able to do more with less and win games thanks to ingenuity and duct tape. But I think that time has passed in the new-look Big 12. This conference is as competitive as ever, and it’ll take more than elbow grease to make it to the top of the heap.

Unless Gundy and Oklahoma State start recruiting at an improved clip, I don’t see a good reason as to why I should buy into this team moving forward.

A Culture Shift in College Football

In the words of Cutty from HBO’s hit show The Wire, “the game done changed.”

With the introduction of Name, Image and Likeness (NIL), the Transfer Portal and a more media-savvy environment, Gundy feels like a dinosaur struggling to fit in.

In the past, Gundy was quick to battle with other coaches across the country, much less the Big 12. But with the influx of young, ambitious coaches like Arizona State’s Kenny Dillingham and media moguls like Colorado’s Deion Sanders, it’s harder than ever to see Gundy fitting into the new world order.

It feels as if the sport is evolving faster than Gundy is willing to adapt.

Label me as a skeptic when it comes to Gundy fitting into the new college football landscape. He doesn’t strike me as a coach who is particularly fond of NIL. He doesn’t give off the same energy as some young, more energetic coaches. And he doesn’t possess the same media savvy or connections as other coaches in his league.

So, what should we expect moving forward?

The 2025 Season

I figure that 2025 will be another uphill climb for Mike Gundy and the Oklahoma State Cowboys.

Even with star running back Ollio Gordon last season, the Cowboys struggled on offense. This year, I suspect a lot of the offensive responsibility will fall on the new starting quarterback. According to reports, the new starter will either be Gretna High School (NE) alum Zane Flores or TCU transfer Hauss Hejny. Considering the different playstyles of the two, there could be room for success if OSU chooses to use both players next season, with Hejny being more of a rushing threat.

Perhaps one of the youngins’ can make an impact, but I’m not sure it’ll be enough to drastically alter the trajectory of this team.

Oklahoma State kicks off the season with a game against UT-Martin, before it travels to Autzen Stadium to take on the mighty Oregon Ducks. This is just a disastrous non-conference start for a team like OSU that is trying to get its footing.

Next comes a home game against lowly Tulsa, before kicking off Big 12 play against what is projected to be a formidable Baylor team. Home conference games include matchups against Houston, Cincinnati, Kansas State and Iowa State. Road games include dates against Arizona, Texas Tech, Kansas and UCF.

Baylor, Texas Tech and Kansas State should be among the Top 5 or 6 of the league. Games against Kansas and Houston are tricky.

I just don’t see a way out of this OSU team. From where I sit, at best, Oklahoma State scrapes by and does its best to break even and make a bowl game. If things go the way that I see them, it might look like another three or four-win season, which could inevitably lead to the ouster of Gundy.

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Mike Gundy’s legacy at Oklahoma State is complicated, but it’s already written — the winningest coach in program history, the mullet-wearing face of two decades of Cowboy football and symbol of consistency and controversy.

But in today’s college football landscape, where adaptability is the currency of success, Gundy feels like a man out of time.

The game has changed, and Oklahoma State looks increasingly like a program stuck in neutral while the rest of the Big 12 races ahead. With a depleted roster, shaky recruiting classes and a schedule that leaves little room for error, 2025 is shaping up for a final test.

The program has given Gundy one last ride. Now it’s up to him to prove he still belongs. Because if the Cowboys stumble again, 2025 just might be Gundy’s last saloon.

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