Championship Week - The Call Sheet

Win and in for the Mountain West, a rematch in Atlanta and a B1G one in Indy.

5-Wide

The 5 games you’re not gonna wanna miss this weekend.

No. 22 UNLV vs. No. 11 Boise State

With G5 playoff representation on the line, this game is a de-facto win-and-you’re-in College Football Playoff game. What a fantastic way to kick off the weekend.

These two teams played already this season on October 25, with Boise State narrowly defeating UNLV 29-24. Rematches are a fun wrinkle to the conference championship season, and I can’t wait to see the adjustments made by both teams.

In that October meeting, Boise State needed a sizeable comeback to avoid defeat. UNLV did a nice job of making life hard for superstar running back Ashton Jeanty, holding him to 128 yards and just one touchdown on 33 carries–a far cry from his usual output. Barry Odom's teams tend to be salty on defense, so this shouldn’t be a huge surprise.

Since that late October meeting, Boise has won 5/5 but labored in close wins against Nevada and Wyoming. UNLV won its final four games, and have looked good with backup-turned-starter Hajj-Malike Williams at quarterback.

Entering the game on Friday night, UNLV boasts the 18th-best Defensive Rush Success Rate, meaning they do a good job at minimizing their opponents’ rushing attack and forcing them into passing downs. The Runnin’ Rebels will surely look to do more of the same against a run-heavy team like Boise. I suspect Barry Odom will set up his defense with seven and eight-man boxes, hoping to both slow down Jeanty and force Boise State quarterback Maddux Madsen to prove he can consistently hit passes downfield. On offense, expect UNLV to push the pace with their go-go offense and to utilize Williams in the run game.

Contrary to popular belief, I think Boise State will now go as far as Maddux Madsen can propel them. Jeanty is a beast and has put up some huge games so far this season, but there are no more slouches on the schedules. Teams are going to start loading the box and making the Broncos throw downfield. Can Madsen make enough plays in the passing game? And can Jeanty continue to be a beast with yards after contact?

This game should feature a ton of ground and pound from both teams. And due to Boise State looking shaky and a bit beaten up in recent weeks, I sort of lean towards UNLV winning and snagging that College Football Playoff spot.

No. 18 Iowa State vs. No. 16 Arizona State

There will be no matchup in Arlington. Instead, both Iowa State and Arizona State will meet for the first time this season.

Iowa State enters the game riding a three-game win streak. Through its first seven games of the year, the Cyclones were undefeated and appeared to be a shoo-in for this matchup. But after back-to-back losses to Texas Tech and Kansas, the boys from Ames needed a BYU over Houston result to book their spot in the Big 12 title game.

If Iowa State was a team that got hot early and did just enough late, Arizona State was a team that got better as the season progressed. The Sun Devils won seven of their last eight to reach the title game. Both Arizona Stae and head coach Kenny Dillingham remain one of the best–and most unlikely–stories in college football this season. To go from picked last in the Big 12 during the preseason to a title game appearance is nothing short of amazing.

On the field, Iowa State relies heavily on its passing game and pass defense. Quarterback Rocco Becht is not always the most efficient passer but is rarely ineffective. Simply put, this team goes as he goes. When he uses his legs to evade pressure and is pinging passes downfield, the offense is really fun to watch. On defense, the Cyclones have been good against the pass and rather lousy defending the run. Believe it or not, Iowa State ranks 102nd in Offensive Rush Success Rate and 101st in Defensive Rush Success Rate. Rarely do teams succeed when they stink at running the ball and stopping the run, but here we are.

Arizona State is a team built on grit and finding an edge. The offense is a two-pronged attack, spearheaded by muscle hamster running back Cam Skattebo and sneaky mobile quarterback Sam Leavitt. Skattebo has nearly 1,400 rushing yards to his name in 2024 and has chipped in 17 rush touchdowns. He never goes down on the first hit and can often be found dragging opponents downfield. He’s a dude amongst dudes.

Leavitt has sneakily been one of the more pleasant quarterback bright spots in 2024. Entering the year I had serious concerns about him and this position, but he’s good pretty good to good all year. A huge credit to him and Dillingham for utilizing his craftiness and athleticism to make plays.

I fully expect Arizona State to attempt to battering ram this Iowa State defense. Run the ball, control the clock and wear down an already suspect rush defense. As long as the Sun Devils’ secondary doesn’t get killed by this Iowa State receiving core, I love Arizona State’s chances. I’m riding with Dillingham and company.

No. 7 Georgia vs. No. 3 Texas

Truth be told, on the night of the original Georgia-Texas matchup, I was as sick as a dog and was barely able to watch the game. As I faded in and out of NyQuil consciousness, I was in disbelief at how badly Georgia manhandled Texas in Austin.

Looking at the stats, Georgia’s defense played one of those trademark hair-on-fire sort of games, stifling the vaunted Sarkisian offense. Georgia jumped out to a remarkable 23-0 halftime lead, and by all accounts, looked like the best team in college football. Fast forward two months later, and Georgia has the feel of a team with way more questions than answers.

Since that faithful matchup on October 19, Georgia suffered a beatdown loss to Ole Miss and struggled mightily against Florida and Georgia Tech, with the latter needing eight overtime periods to find a resolution. Quarterback Carson Beck went from preseason QB1 hype to being meme’d about his poor play and TikTok girlfriend.

Texas, however, has turned things around. Despite some lingering questions about quarterback Quinn Ewers’ ankle injury, the Longhorns have largely looked good and notched a big road victory against old rivals Texas A&M on Saturday to book its place in this game.

Steve Sarkisian teams are usually offense-oriented, but this version of Texas boasts a ferocious defense that is not to be trifled with. The Longhorns have been kickass all season, allowing more than 17 points just once. Against A&M, the defense allowed zero offensive points. Breathtaking stuff.

How does Georgia crack the Texas defensive code? Your guess is as good as mine. This Georgia unit has come out of the gate slow in a lot of games and looked bad for three quarters against a seven-win Georgia Tech team. Label me as concerned with how this game can go if Georgia doesn’t find ways to get some early points on the board.

On offense, Texas has questions too. And I think it’s fair to ask ourselves whether to see a repeat of that game on October 19. Even so, I think Sarkisian will have something for Kirby and that the Longhorns will find creative ways to score.

Georgia might just have the highest ceiling of any team playing on Saturday. Will we see the Dawgs hit those lofty heights in Atlanta? I can’t wait to find out.

No. 4 Penn State vs. No. 1 Oregon

Penn State head coach James Franklin has the chance to do the funniest thing ever.

It’s not often teams get a shot at redemption in the same season, but Penn State has that chance. After falling to Ohio State in its biggest regular season game of the year, the Nittany Lions can write their programs wrongs and help their coach save face after years of late-game letdowns with a B1G 10 title.

The only thing standing in Penn State’s way is an undefeated Oregon, led by a psycho assassin of a head coach who’s hungry to establish dominance in a new conference and finally loft the Ducks’ program into the national power stratosphere.

Oregon is the clear favorite in this game, and rightfully so. The Ducks knocked off that same Ohio State team the Nittany Lions lost to, and have looked dominant throughout the season, outside of close calls against College Football Playoff contender Boise State and Wisconsin after playing eight straight games.

The Ducks rank ninth in the country in Net EPA/Play, fifth in Offense Success Rate and 36th in Defense Success Rate. Oregon is incredibly well-rounded and looks both competent and down-right ferocious on both sides of the ball. The defensive line can rush the passer, quarterback Dillon Gabriel does a good job of spreading the ball around and so far, Dan Lanning has nailed almost all of his critical decision-making duties. There’s a reason this group is undefeated and sits atop the college football pile.

Penn State is great too, though. The Nittany Lions are stout on defense, led by some dogs on the defensive line. The offense isn’t what I’d call nightmarish, but it does possess a healthy amount of wrinkles thanks to offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki. Penn State is a really good team without a really good win.

This game should be a real chess match. How does Oregon cope with Penn State’s elite defensive line? Can Penn State quarterback Drew Allar finally ball out in a big spot? How about Dillon Gabriel? Are the Ducks willing to use their signal-caller in the run game like they did against Ohio State?

Keep an eye on the Oregon run game as being a huge difference-maker. If the Ducks can chip away at the Nittany Lion defense in the run game and are willing to let Gabriel occasionally scoot, I like their chances. Give me Oregon by a field goal.

No. 12 Clemson vs. No. 9 SMU

Ninth-ranked SMU has been doubted all year long, and at every turn, the Mustangs have delivered. Entering a new league is hard, but SMU made it look easy, breezing through to an 8-0 ACC record.

After a few games, head coach Rhett Lashlee made the difficult decision to move away from a two-quarterback system, instead opting to hand the keys to the offense over to Kevin Jennings. That tough call paid off, as Jennings has exploded in 2024. The dual-threat signal-caller creates a host of problems for defenses with his legs and downfield passing ability. He’s had a fantastic 2024 regular season, finishing with over 2,700 passing yards and 19 touchdowns. He’s also only been sacked nine times–a testament to this group’s offensive line and his ability to evade pressure.

The offense has been fun, but the defense has been the star of the show. SMU has the best rush defense in the ACC and ranks fourth nationally. Their defensive coordinator Scott Symons is up for the Broyles Award. This unit is legit and has been fantastic all season.

SMU made a lot of hay against below-average ACC teams and had a few “got away with it” games, but 11 wins is 11 wins. It’s a tremendous season by all accounts.

Across the field, Clemson has done a lot of the same type of winning by beating up average ACC teams. Clemson has three losses, two of which came against Georgia in Week 1 and red-hot South Carolina last weekend. From where I sit, Clemson is a tough team to figure out.

The Tigers have a talented coaching staff, good players and at times, have looked formidable. Other times, they appear to lack that next gear to beat good teams, and I think SMU is a good team. Something has got to give.

Clemson has a pretty good offense, led by quarterback Cade Klubnik. Klubnik has done a really nice job of not turning the ball over this year, having thrown just five interceptions in 12 games. The Tigers rank 29th in rushing and 16th in passing and have given some defenses fits.

The Tiger defense, however, is a different story. Clemson’s defense ranks just 72nd in stopping the run and 47th in stopping the pass game. That is just not good enough for a team playing for a conference title.

I’ve sort of been an SMU skeptic all year, but the proof is in the pudding. This is a good team with a good quarterback and I think the Mustangs will win this game and represent the ACC in the College Football Playoff. Pony up!

Games I’m Keeping An Eye On 👀

Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State - For die-hards and casuals alike, this one has fun written all over it. Expect points in bunches in this fun clash of styles.

No. 17 Tulane vs. Army - In the final week, Tulane biffed it against Memphis to lose out on a chance at the College Football Playoff. Can Jon Sumrall get his guys up off the mat for a scrap with the troops?

Ohio vs. Miami (Ohio) - The battle for Ohio is upon us. Will Ohio win its first-ever MAC title or will the Redhawks repeat as champions? Doubt Chuck Martin at your own peril.

Marshall vs. Louisiana - Marshall clinched a spot in the Sun Belt title game on the last play of the regular season. Louisiana has dominated its division all year. I expect Marshall to pull out all the stops in hopes of pulling the upset.

The Brent Musburger Gambling Guide

My official locks of the week. (Lines are locked in at the time of writing)

+2 units on the season.

Marshall vs. -4 Louisiana - I love the Ragin’ Cajuns in this spot.

Tulane vs. Army OVER 47.5 - Let’s get points-y.

Georgia vs. -2.5 Texas - OK cool, Hook ‘em.

What I’m Reading This Season

SID Sports - Don’t forget to subscribe to Griffin Olah’s SID Sports newsletter. As a former Divison I sports information director, Olah has a great grasp of the sport and I really enjoy his work.

2201 Kimball Ave | Cameron Morgan - 2201 Kimball Ave is essential reading for all followers of Kansas State football. As a lifelong K-State fan and former player, Cameron brings a unique and thoughtful approach to the analysis of the Wildcats' football team. His newsletters are rational and insightful and I genuinely learn something new with every newsletter.

Split Zone Duo | Alex Kirshner, Richard Johnson and Steven Godfrey - SZD is essential reading and following for CFB ball knowers. Godfrey, Richard and Alex are the Holy Trinity for college football analysis and insight. Each member brings a unique flavor to the conversation, which makes for insightful and downright hilarious banter about the sport we all love. If I had someone ask me where to start for smarter college football coverage, SZD is where I'd send them.