5-Wide
The 5 games you’re not gonna wanna miss this weekend.
No. 6 Ohio State vs. No. 5 Notre Dame
This one’s for all the marbles, folks.
After a long, hard season, we’ve officially reached the apex and get the opportunity to watch either Notre Dame or Ohio State capture a national title. Both of these teams have exhibited incredible fortitude in the face of immense pressure for headline-grabbing losses. Both teams have elite coaches and stacked rosters. And both teams have a realistic shot at winning this thing, which is pretty cool if you ask me.
How’d we get here?
Notre Dame’s path to the College Football Playoff National Championship included beatdowns of upstart Indiana and SEC powerhouse Georgia. The Fighting Irish also dispatched an excellent Penn State team, thanks to a good performance from quarterback Riley Leonard and a clutch late interception by their defense.
Ohio State’s path to the title game was as dominant as you could imagine and also included a highlight-reel defensive play to cement its berth in the championship game. The Buckeyes steamrolled Tennessee and previously undefeated Oregon, and later knocked off a good Texas team in the semis, capped by a clutch Jack Sawyer scoop and score off a sack.
Back to this matchup…
Notre Dame enters this game in a somewhat unfamiliar position, as early lines have the Fighting Irish slated as 9.5-point underdogs.
Notre Dame has been a ground-and-pound-heavy team all year, relying on standout running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. Riley Leonard also chips in a ton in that phase of the game and has accumulated 866 yards and 16 touchdowns on the ground. Despite the depleted offensive line, if Notre Dame is going to win this game, it’s going to be thanks to a steady run game.
Leonard is a lot of things, but a consistent downfield passer he is not. To his credit, he’s made some big throws in recent games, but he’ll have to make way more than one or two against the Buckeyes if Notre Dame is to spring the upset.
The Fighting Irish are good on the ground, especially when Leonard gets going. Have a fearsome defense that generates pressure and tackles with oomph. And have an increasingly fun and effective special teams unit. They possess the hallmarks of a possibly great football team…and yet I’m just not sure this offense has enough juice to hang with Ohio State.
How does Notre Dame win this game?
The Fighting Irish can win this game if they take a page out of Michigan’s playbook. Run the ball. Control the clock. And sucker Ohio State into trying to play caveman ball.
How successful can Notre Dame be with that strategy? It’s hard to say. I think Ohio State learned from that dreaded Michigan performance and that it’ll be difficult to get them back into that position.
For Ohio State, I'm really excited to see the Buckeye wide receivers against the Notre Dame secondary. Notre Dame has put together some shutdown performances in recent weeks, the highlight being allowing ZERO completions to a wide receiver against Penn State. That’s some serious stuff.
Ohio State’s receiving core will present a host of new challenges for Notre Dame. Jeremiah Smith is arguably the best wide receiver in the country…will the Fighting Irish elect to double-cover him as Texas did? And if they do, can the rest of the guys stay with the likes of Emeka Egbuka, Carnell Tate and others? Plus, quarterback Will Howard is on a bit of a heater right now. He wasn’t perfect against Texas…but he’s been pretty good throughout the College Football Playoffs. Can Notre Dame disguise enough coverages to throw him off balance?
The Buckeyes also pose a formidable threat in the run game with Trevion Henderson and Quinshon Judkins. Against Penn State, Notre Dame struggled to stop the run. Could we see a repeat of that against Ohio State?
How does Ohio State win this game?
The Buckeyes win by playing their game. Run the ball where necessary. Get Will Howard some nice rhythm throws. And put the Fighting Irish defense in some compromising positions.
I’m not totally sure Notre Dame can defend these Buckeye receivers one-on-one AND have enough guys in the box to stop the run game. It seems like an either/or situation, where Notre Dame is forced to choose which phase of the game it hopes to limit.
Bud Elliott from the Cover 3 Podcast had a great call-out this week, saying that Notre Dame’s best option to win might also be the option that could lead to a big blowout. Meaning that if the Fighting Irish decide to go man-to-man in the secondary (and don’t go with two high safeties the entire game), they can put enough guys in the box to slow down the run game. This could be a good option, but could also lead to a blowout if these receivers torch Notre Dame’s secondary.
Despite Notre Dame finding a way in all of these games in the run-up to the title game, I think Ohio State poses too many matchup problems and I’m picking the Buckeyes to win.
The Brent Musburger Gambling Guide
My official locks of the week. (Lines are locked in at the time of writing)
+2 units on the season
-8 Ohio State vs. Notre Dame
What I’m Reading
SID Sports - Don’t forget to subscribe to Griffin Olah’s SID Sports newsletter. As a former Divison I sports information director, Olah has a great grasp of the sport and I really enjoy his work.
2201 Kimball Ave | Cameron Morgan - 2201 Kimball Ave is essential reading for all followers of Kansas State football. As a lifelong K-State fan and former player, Cameron brings a unique and thoughtful approach to the analysis of the Wildcats' football team. His newsletters are rational and insightful and I genuinely learn something new with every newsletter.
Split Zone Duo | Alex Kirshner, Richard Johnson and Steven Godfrey - SZD is essential reading and following for CFB ball knowers. Godfrey, Richard and Alex are the Holy Trinity for college football analysis and insight. Each member brings a unique flavor to the conversation, which makes for insightful and downright hilarious banter about the sport we all love. If I had someone ask me where to start for smarter college football coverage, SZD is where I'd send them.
Moneyline for my site is -380 Ohio State. If ND can take the lead early and I can get that to -300 or below I’d jump on it.