CFP Quarterfinals - The Call Sheet

A Rose Bowl rematch, Penn State vs. Cinderella and a Sugar Bowl slugfest.

5-Wide

The 5 games you’re not gonna wanna miss this weekend.

No. 5 Texas vs. No. 4 Arizona State

Last Saturday evening, fifth-seed Texas gashed Clemson in the run game en route to a 38-24 victory in the closest of the College Football Playoff first-round matchups.

Texas leaned on its star-studded offensive line and stable of plug-and-play running backs to the tune of 292 yards and four touchdowns. Quarterback Quinn Ewers wasn’t asked to do a ton. He made some decent throws and added one touchdown and one interception to his season stat line.

I’m not so sure that we’ll get the answer to this question in this particular matchup, but are we sure that Ewers is good enough to lead this team to a national title? Perhaps that’s for another day.

In this matchup, my eyes are immediately drawn to the lines of scrimmage. Despite some late injuries up front on Saturday, that Texas offensive line group was immense against Clemson and I suspect head coach Steve Sarkisian will lean on this unit again against Arizona State. The Sun Devils boast a solid run defense (28th in the country) but that group has not been tested in this way all year.

Speaking of immense run games, welcome to the party, Arizona State. The Sun Devils are the 23rd-best rushing team in the country, in large part due to ball-of-knives running back Cam Skattebo. Skattebo tore Iowa State limb from limb in the Big 12 championship game, and will undoubtedly be a monster component of the game plan in this one.

God knows I love Kenny Dillingham and Cam Skattebo, but I’m not terribly confident that the Sun Devils will thrive in the run game against this Texas defense. That means if the Sun Devils hope to pull a big upset, they’ll likely need a lot of help from quarterback Sam Leavitt and the passing game. That part feels possible, but unlikely, especially considering Leavitt is down his best receiver to injury.

Clemson did some good stuff in the passing game against Texas, and that was a large part of what kept the game close. Can Arizona State attempt to do the same? Leavitt is a pretty slippery runner too, and I wonder if he can use his legs to scramble on traditional passing downs to make life hard on the Longhorns’ defense.

Arizona State has been an incredible story all year and Kenny Dillingham deserves a ton of credit for what he’s done. That said, I think the Texas defense and run game will be too much to overcome in this one. I like the Longhorns comfortably.

No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Oregon

Back in October, these two teams were separated by a single point. It was quite possibly the game of the year, but with it came an odd ending.

With just six seconds remaining and one timeout in the holster, Ohio State desperately needed at least 10 yards to attempt a manageable, game-winning field goal. Ohio State quarterback Will Howard took the snap, dropped back to assess the defense and inexplicably chose to scramble. Instead of attempting a pass or calling a timeout, Howard ran and slid with no time left, abruptly ending the Buckeyes’ chances at a win.

It was a strange ending to an otherwise fantastic game. I can’t wait to see what Bucks-Ducks Part 2 has in store for us.

In the first installment of this matchup, Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel was masterful and finished with 341 passing yards and two touchdowns. He also chipped in one score on the ground.

In predictable Dan Lanning fashion, the Ducks were ultra-aggressive and that mentality paid off. Oregon capitalized on an onside kick call in the first half and later in the game, leveraged some great clock management down the stretch that made it hard for the Buckeyes to answer on the final drive.

In the rematch, I suspect Gabriel and this receiving core will need to have big days to keep pace with the dangerous Ohio State passing attack. In the Big 10 Championship game against Penn State, Oregon offensive coordinator Will Stain did a masterful job of scheming receivers like Tez Johnson wide open…can he pull it off for a second time against a comparable conference foe? In the first game, Gabriel also did a nice of using his legs to extend drives. Can he do that again or will the Buckeyes sacrifice on the backend to keep him contained?

Ohio State has proven to have one of the most lethal offensive groups in college football. But at times, they’ve gotten in their own way. What’s the game plan for an Oregon defense that is 35th in stopping the run and 8th at defending the pass?

I think Ohio State realizes that it can’t play bully ball in the run game (largely due to the injured offensive line) and is finally just leaning into out-gunning teams in the passing game. Could Oregon use that to its advantage and try and force the Buckeyes into running more frequently?

Star receivers Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka have been crucial to this group’s success all season, and at least one of them will need to have a big game against the Ducks. My money is on Smith.

One of the big questions about Will Howard entering the season was whether he was built for games like this. He played well in the first matchup but faltered when the lights got the brightest. Can he be the guy this team needs in this type of game? I can’t wait to find out.

Back in October, I bet Will Howard would’ve given anything to have a do-over. Now he’s got that chance.

Traditional wisdom suggests that it’s really difficult to be good/great teams twice in one season. But if any team can do it, I think it’s this Oregon group. I’m expecting another instant classic with Oregon coming out on top late.

No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 Boise State

Penn State's defense was on full display in the College Football Playoff first-round matchup against SMU. The Nittany Lions limited a high-powered SMU offense to just 57 rushing yards and 252 yards total. Even when that unit wasn’t intercepting SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings (they did so three times in the first half!), the defensive line flustered him to the point where plays broke down and he was running for his life.

The Nittany Lions will surely deploy a similar strategy in the Fiesta Bowl matchup against third-seed Boise State. Boise State’s offense poses problems that are different from the ones SMU brought to the party. The Broncos have far and away the best running back in the country in Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty. The Broncos ranked fifth in the country in rush offense (250 yards per game) and Jeanty finished with an insane 13-game stat line of 2,497 yards and 29 touchdowns. He’s been a handful for defenses all year and will be priority number one when these two teams face off.

It feels overly simplistic to say that if Penn State can shut down Jeanty and the run game the Nittany Lions will likely win the game…but that feels like it might be the case.

I do not, however, want to gloss over this Penn State offense which left a lot to be desired from its first-half showing against a good SMU defense. The Nittany Lions needed three Christmas gift INTs (two of which went for pick-sixes) from Jennings to generate points. I’m still not convinced that Drew Allar is an elite quarterback, and I do think Boise State can give him, and this unit, some problems.

The Penn State offense is pretty reliant on the run game, so if Boise State wants to stifle that group, it’ll likely need to slow down running backs Nic Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Could Boise State stack the box and force Allar to make big throws downfield? And if the Broncos do that, can Allar make them pay?

I suspect that Penn State’s physicality and stout defense will be the difference in this one.

Remember: James Franklin still has the opportunity to be the first head coach to lose a home playoff game in the 12-team playoff era. Do with that information what you will.

No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia

Who’s ready for some caveman football?

Georgia enters the contest down its starting quarterback and will rely on redshirt sophomore Gunner Stockton to lead the charge. Stockton played a half of football in relief of the injured Carson Beck in the SEC Championship–and although he wasn’t particularly good or overly inspiring, he did enough for Georgia to win the game and get a first-round bye.

I’m really curious to see how Georgia offensive coordinator Mike Bobo approaches this game with Stockton running the offense. Against Texas, Georgia was awful in the first half and needed some big third and fourth-quarter run plays to spark the second-half comeback and overtime win. Can the Bulldogs generate those types of big run plays against a possibly great Notre Dame defense? Time will tell.

On the other side of this matchup, Notre Dame has to like its chances to win, especially after its opening-round beatdown of Indiana. Against the Hoosiers, Notre Dame leaned on its run game for 193 yards and two touchdowns–the big one coming when running back Jeremiyah Love scampered for 98 yards to open the scoring. Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard wasn’t asked to do a ton but was pretty good when called upon. Call me curious to watch Riley Leonard and this run game up against an ultra-physical and ferocious run defense from SEC country.

Notre Dame’s offense was fine against Indiana, but it was the defense that really led the way for the Fighting Irish. This unit is tough and physical and does a great job of holding its own at the line of scrimmage. Notre Dame's defensive line versus Georgia’s offensive line will be a big talking point in this matchup.

If Notre Dame is to win this game, the Fighting Irish will need to establish the run game (like it has all year) and not ask Leonard to do too much. If Leonard is forced to make a ton of plays downfield, things could get dicey for Notre Dame.

If Georgia is to win this game, the Bulldog defense needs to make Riley Leonard prove that he can throw the ball. Make him make plays downfield and let your defensive line pin their ears back. On offense, Bobo and company need to get creative with how they can scheme open some pass plays for Stockton. Don’t ask the new guy to do too much on his first day.

It’s not a particularly bold statement to say that Stockton will have to play better than he did against Texas in the SEC Championship if Georgia is going to win this football game. What does feel bold, however, is that I think he’ll do just that and that I think Georgia is going to walk out of this one victorious.

Give me the Bulldogs in a 13-10 rock fight.

The Brent Musburger Gambling Guide

My official locks of the week. (Lines are locked in at the time of writing)

+2 units on the season

-11 Penn State vs. Boise State - I’m rockin’ with this Nittany Lion defense.

Notre Dame vs. -1.5 Georgia - It’s Georgia Against the World.

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