CFP First Round - The Call Sheet

Friday Night Lights, Dabo vs. Sark and a showdown in The Shoe.

5-Wide

The 5 games you’re not gonna wanna miss this weekend.

No. 10 Indiana vs. No. 7 Notre Dame

Clear Eyes. Full Heart. Somebody’s Gotta Lose.

What a way to kick off the 12-team College Football Playoff!

Despite not having played each other since the late 1950s, Indiana-Notre Dame is one of the most exciting matchups of the College Football Playoff opening round. The two teams are separated by just 200 miles of pavement and both have played some of the best ball we’ve seen all year.

This matchup, more than others, feels like one that will be decided on the lines of scrimmage and inside the tackles. In Lamen’s terms, this will be some low-pad-level, hand-in-the-dirt, grown-man football. It’s the way football was meant to be played.

If Indiana can limit Notre Dame’s run game, I love the Hoosiers’ chances of springing an upset. If Notre Dame controls the line of scrimmage and can establish the run, the Fighting Irish will likely advance. Win the LOS, win the game. Sometimes it really can be that simple.

Entering the game, Indiana boasts one of the best defenses in the country, ranking 1st in run defense (70.8 yards per game) and ninth in pass defense (174 yards per game). The Hoosiers run defense will be pushed to the brink by Notre Dame, which boasts a fearsome rushing attack, spearheaded by running back Jeremiyah Love and quarterback Riley Leonard. The pair have combined for 29 rushing touchdowns on the year, a testament to the prowess of the offensive line and a refusal to waver in running the ball.

Indiana’s rush defense has been really strong in 2024, albeit it against a relatively weak schedule all things considered. The only team that Indiana has faced this season that can somewhat mirror Notre Dame’s rushing attack is Michigan. Indiana beat Michigan 20-15 to move to 10-0 and gave up just 86 sack-adjusted yards on 32 carries. In theory, that bodes well for the Hoosiers and proves they can hang with a run-heavy team. But even so, I feel pretty confident that Notre Dame’s offensive line and rushing attack is a significant notch above the Wolverines’.

On the other side of the ball, I can’t wait to watch Indiana’s offense and pass game in particular, against Notre Dame’s awesome secondary. Entering the game, the Fighting Irish possess the third-best pass defense, allowing just 158 yards per game. Indiana averages a little over 250 pass yards per game, so something will have to give.

Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke has been a revelation this season. A steady-handed signal-caller with pin-point accuracy, Rourke has largely looked unflappable, outside the game against Ohio State in November. He’s a rhythm quarterback and a big part of the Hoosier pass game is dependent on timing. I’ll be curious to see if Notre Dame attempts to speed Rourke up with some exotic blitzes. Ohio State blitzed the hell out of Rourke down the stretch of that game and it caused Indiana a ton of problems.

I suspect Notre Dame will find a decent level of success in the run game and that the Irish will win the game by a touchdown or so. It should be a fun one!

No. 11 SMU vs. No. 6 Penn State

I’m ultra-curious to see this up-tempo SMU offense go up against a lethal Penn State defense that’s loaded with athletes at every level. In particular, I can’t wait to see the type of impact Penn State’s wrecking ball defensive end Abdul Carter can make on the game. SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings makes a lot of things happen with his legs, so I suspect Carter’s ability to wreak havoc and reach the quarterback will go a long way in deciding this game.

For much of the season, SMU has gone as Jennings has gone. When he’s good, the Mustangs are good. In the regular season, he did a great job of creating things in the air and on the ground. In the air, he finished with 2,700 passing yards and 19 touchdowns through 12 games. He was also only sacked nine times in the regular season, which is a testament to this group’s offensive line and his ability to evade pressure.

SMU’s offense has been exciting, but the defense has been the star of the show. The Mustangs had the best rush defense in the ACC and ranked fourth nationally. Their defensive coordinator Scott Symons was up for the Broyles Award. This unit is legit and has been fantastic all season. I’m curious to see how this group holds up to the physical nature of the Penn State offense. The one-two running back duo of Nic Singleton and Kaytron Allen have combined for over 1,600 yards and 13 touchdowns. Both players work nicely off of each other and give this unit a nice sense of physicality and balance.

The good thing for SMU is that no one believes in them. Virtually no one is expecting the Mustangs to walk into a frigid Beaver Stadium and walk out with a win, which means the boys from Dallas are playing with a bit of house money. Perhaps SMU can use that to its advantage.

Penn State, however, is facing a ton of pressure. Many college football prognosticators feel that the Nittany Lions received the easiest path to the semifinals. James Franklin in a big spot…what could go wrong?

SMU has been a fun story this year–and God knows the Ponies are exciting to watch–but I have a hard time envisioning a world where SMU handles Penn State’s physicality enough to win this game. I think if Penn State quarterback Drew Allar can avoid turning the ball over, the Nittany Lions’ run game and creativity on offense can cause some issues. I expect the Penn State defense to lay the wood and for the Nittany Lions to win.

No. 12 Clemson vs. No. 5 Texas

*In my most sincere Dabo Swinney voice*

“God wouldn’t put a Goliath in your life if you didn’t have a David inside of you.”

While this game isn’t quite the David vs. Goliath matchup that Swinney is probably playing it up to be, it does feel like a significant mismatch between the two proud programs.

Texas enters the games licking its wounds after a loss to SEC champ Georgia. The Longhorns lost a strange game. It feels like head coach Steve Sarkisian and company will not be able to shake that one off anytime soon.

Moving forward: Sark has to fix this offense. No way around it. He’s an offensive genius and does some legitimately awesome play-calling, but for whatever reason, this offense just cannot get going. 17 points in a win against A&M and 19 points in a loss to Georgia (with its backup quarterback) is simply not good enough.

Could the Longhorns alleviate some of their offensive woes by turning to backup quarterback Arch Manning more frequently? I certainly think that option is on the table. Manning has looked the part in spot duty, and thanks to his dual-threat capabilities I think he could provide a real spark to this offense. At some point, Sarkisian has to consider playing Manning more, and I think it starts this weekend.

Across the field, Clemson just barely snuck into the CFP field and in a way, their fans are probably just happy to be here. I don’t think the team thinks that way, but there’s no doubt about it, the Tigers were fortunate to be in this position. After closing the regular season with a loss to rivals South Carolina, Clemson needed Miami to bomb against Syracuse and later needed a 56-yard walk-off field goal to win the ACC and make it to the College Football Playoff. Wild stuff.

Does Clemson have enough in the tank to compete in this game? Certainly.

Do the Tigers have enough dudes to hang with this Texas defense for four quarters? I doubt it.

The Longhorns’ defense is incredible and I suspect this unit will make life hard for Clemson’s offense. Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik has been surprisingly good for most of the season and poses some threats when scrambling. Even so, if Texas can squash the Phil Mafah-led Clemson run game, the Tigers could find themselves in too many obvious passing downs.

I think Sarkisian will lean into Arch Manning a little more on offense and that the Texas defense will make life hard for Clemson on offense. Give me the Horns.

No. 9 Tennessee vs. No. 8 Ohio State

Can the mighty Ohio State Buckeyes pull themselves off the mat? That’s the big question surrounding this matchup.

No disrespect to Tennessee, which has had a fine season, but this game feels especially Ohio State-centric. The Buckeyes boast a raucous home crowd (is that a good thing, in this case?), a 20-million-dollar roster and a more accomplished coaching staff…and yet, I have no idea what version of the Buckeyes we’ll get on Saturday.

Ohio State’s defense enters the game ranked seventh in rush defense and second in pass defense. I’d like to think the Buckeyes defense can hold up to a strong Tennesse rush attack and the occasional quick-strike nature of a Josh Heupel offense.

The Buckeyes offense has shown that it can be clunky (ahem, against Michigan) and that still worries me. Have head coach Ryan Day and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly eaten a slice of humble pie and now have a clearer idea of how this team has to win games? I’d like to think so, but who knows?

How can Tennessee win this game? I think the Michigan blueprint is the way forward for the Volunteers.

Tennessee boasts the ninth best rushing offense in the country, averaging 232 yards per game. Running back Dylan Sampson has been a revelation in 2024, rushing for just shy of 1,500 yards and 23 touchdowns. I suspect Sampson will get a heavy diet of rushes in this game–and the Vols will just need to hope he can keep the chains moving and keep that Ohio State offense on the sidelines.

On defense, Tennessee will need to muck the game up a la Michigan. The problem with this game plan, however, is that in a way, it relies on Ohio State to just stop throwing the football. I have a hard time thinking we’ll see another bizarre offensive game plan from the Buckeyes.

If Ohio State leans into its offensive strengths and airs the ball out, the Buckeyes should win this game and assuage their fanbase’s fears. If for some reason Kelly and company choose not to do that, well, they can certainly lose this game.

I suspect Ohio State has learned its lesson and will lean into its strengths in this one. Give me the Buckeyes.

The Brent Musburger Gambling Guide

My official locks of the week. (Lines are locked in at the time of writing)

+2 units on the season

SMU vs. -8.5 Penn State - I think Penn State will be too physical for the Mustangs.

Tennessee vs. Ohio State UNDER 47 - Two great defenses in this one. I like it to be lower scoring.

What I’m Reading This Season

SID Sports - Don’t forget to subscribe to Griffin Olah’s SID Sports newsletter. As a former Divison I sports information director, Olah has a great grasp of the sport and I really enjoy his work.

2201 Kimball Ave | Cameron Morgan - 2201 Kimball Ave is essential reading for all followers of Kansas State football. As a lifelong K-State fan and former player, Cameron brings a unique and thoughtful approach to the analysis of the Wildcats' football team. His newsletters are rational and insightful and I genuinely learn something new with every newsletter.

Split Zone Duo | Alex Kirshner, Richard Johnson and Steven Godfrey - SZD is essential reading and following for CFB ball knowers. Godfrey, Richard and Alex are the Holy Trinity for college football analysis and insight. Each member brings a unique flavor to the conversation, which makes for insightful and downright hilarious banter about the sport we all love. If I had someone ask me where to start for smarter college football coverage, SZD is where I'd send them.