Can Mario Cristobal and Miami Do a U-Turn?
Why Miami and the prodigal son are desperate for a big turnaround in 2024.
On Saturday, October 7, 2023, Mario Cristobal and the Miami Hurricanes snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
Fresh off a four-game winning streak to start the season and with less than a minute to play, the 17th-ranked Hurricanes were mere moments from closing out Georgia Tech. And then Mario Cristobal Mario’d the game away.
Instead of kneeling the ball and running the clock out, Cristobal toyed with the football gods, electing to hand the ball off and get a young player reps. What followed will not soon be forgotten.
On third-and-10 from the Yellow Jackets’ 30-yard line, Hurricanes running back Don Chaney Jr. took the handoff and plunged through the line of scrimmage before being met by a trio of Georgia Tech defenders. He fought hard for a few extra yards (as every running back is taught to do) but in the process, lost possession of the ball, leading to a Yellow Jacket recovery.
In a truly nightmarish scenario for everyone associated with Miami (and especially Cristobal, who ultimately is to blame for signing off on the run play), Georgia Tech quarterback Haynes King did the improbable, orchestrating a clinical drive that was capped with a 30-yard touchdown pass to defeat Miami 23-20.
The funny thing about how this whole thing played out is that it is a microcosm of the Mario Cristobal Effect. Do a lot of things well, do those things well for a good amount of time and then inexplicably get in your own way when it matters most.
The program and its prodigal son sit at a crossroads as Miami embarks on Year 3 of the Mario Cristobal era. Cristobal came home to Coral Gables to bring this once dominant force back to prominence, but through two seasons has done anything but.
Crisotbal’s job is now on the line and he needs to lead the Canes to a drastic turnaround in 2024. Can he and the Hurricanes do a U-turn? Or is the preseason hype and promise just a bunch of smoke?
The Mario Cristobal Effect
I referenced this a bit earlier, but that play against Georgia Tech follows the same arc as Cristobal himself. Cristobal possesses most of the characteristics a college football coach needs to compete in the modern amalgamation of the sport, yet drags around a fatal flaw that holds and the programs he oversees back.
Cristobal boasts a strong playing resume (he was part of two title-winning teams at Miami), earned his stripes as an assistant and has two successful-ish head coaching tenures under his belt at FIU and Oregon. He’s an assassin-level recruiter, often stockpiling the cupboards with more than enough talent to win. And ultimately, he’s stubborn as hell (for better or worse), and to an extent, that’s needed to be successful in his line of work.
Like a supped-up muscle car with a faulty battery, Cristobal looks the part and does everything around his program to be successful. But during games, he is his own worst enemy. The man in the mirror holds both Cristobal and the Hurricanes back.
The closest modern day comparision to Cristobal’s in-game shotgunning of his own foot is Penn State coach James Franklin. Both men possesses many of the same elite qualities that have vaulted them near the top of the sport. And yet simultaneously, they find uniquely cruel and unusual ways to mismanage and lose football games.
I’m convinced that if the pair simply weren’t allowed to coach for the three and a half hours needed on Saturdays, both programs would end up with more wins and far less scars.
What Went Wrong
The Mario at Miami tenure likely looks different depending on which side of the optimism fence you stand on.
For the detractors (like myself, as of now), I see a coach who has recruited his tail off, built a team that should be much improved, but that ultimately hasn’t lived up to expectations. Perhaps that changes this year, but this is where things sit from where I stand after two seasons.
The pro-Mario crowd likely sees things a bit differently. Cristobal has crushed it on the recruiting trail, and has been tasked with doing what many high-profile coaches face when taking on a failing program: flush the bad and acquire the good, all at the same time. To say it’s a difficult needle to thread is putting lightly.
Bad Quarterback Play
Cristobal’s most notable recruiting/roster failings are at the quarterback position. After somehow diminishing the future stardom of Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert, Cristobal and his offensive staff inherited what looked like a future superstar in Tyler Van Dyke. Fresh off a breakout season in 2021 under Manny Diaz, TVD look destined for stardom and was poised to be the man to bring the Canes back to national prominence. That did not happen.
And perhaps the two faltering seasons from TVD shouldn’t all be chalked up to Cristobal or his offensive coordinator hires, but after his track record with Herbert, it’s hard for you mind not to wander there.
Inexplicable Losses
Losing is one thing. Losing games you shouldn’t in ghastly ways in entirely another. Unfortunately for Cristobal, he has plenty of both on his Miami resume.
Cristobal is just 12-13 in two years in Coral Gables, which in and of itself pretty bad. Now factor in that three of those home losses came against Middle Tennessee State, 2023 Texas A&M, Duke and Georgia Tech…yikes. Not to mention blowouts against schools they should, in theory, be competing with atop the conference in Clemson and Florida State. It just hasn’t been good enough, no if, and or buts about it.
A 2024 Silver Lining?
In theory, 2024 should be a much improved year for the Miami Hurricanes football program. After a pair of flat soda seasons, there’s a real reason for optimism this time around.
For starters, the Canes finally appear to have a legitimate quarterback that’s equipped for the spotlight in transfer Cam Ward. Ward dazzled in late-night Pac-12 cameos for the past two seasons, and after electing to forgo the NFL for one more year in college, took his talents to South Beach.
For what it’s worth, I think Ward made the right move staying in college in 2024. Next year’s quarterback draft class appears significantly weaker than the 2023 class, meaning if he has a strong season, he’ll likely positon himself near the top of draft boards. Plus, with NIL opportunities in Coral Gables, he won’t have to work for free.
He also feels like the right guy at the right time for Miami. The Canes are in win-now mode and Ward won’t need the hand-holding that a young, inexperienced quarterback would likely require. Ward is ready made and if early reports are correct, he’s already brought a large leadership presence to the Canes’ locker room.
Another reason for optimism? I’m not sure that Miami could ask for a better schedule this time around.
The Hurricanes will kickoff the season with a good, old-fashioned (and quite rare!) Week 1 Anxiety Bowl against in-state rivals Florida. The winning team (and head coach) gets to feel good and will hope that victory is a catalyst for a strong season to come. The loser…well, they’ll be asking some tough questions early. Both of Florida and UM appear to be teetering on the edge before a ball has been kicked, so it should be a fun watch.
If Miami can beat Florida in Week 1, things are looking up. It should be favorites in its next five games before a mid-October date with Louisville. It’s not unfathomable that Miami could start 5-1 or 6-0. Games against Louisville and Florida State look tough, but the schedule eases afterward with the final three games coming against Georgia Tech, Wake Forest and Syracuse.
Anything less than 9-3 feels like a disappointing season. There, I said it. Barring a major injury, this team should sniff the double digit win mark and be squarely in the ACC and College Football Playoff picture.
Thinking back to that October 7 game against Georgia Tech, I realize now that level of pain and scrutiny is the type of thing that typically makes or breaks a coach. If used as a positive turning point, it becomes the UL Monroe speck on Nick Saban’s resume. If it breaks the coach, well, its later the case and point as to why said coach did not work out.
Time will tell whether Cristobal and the Hurricanes can do a U-turn on the current trajectory of the program. Or whether all the hope and promise of a Miami Man homecoming is destined to go up in smoke.