2024 Pre-Fired College Football Coaches List
A look at the Cooked, Almost Cooked and Might Be Cooked coaches entering 2024.
The phrase “dead man walking” often paints a very grim picture of a person on death row and their literal march to execution. College football ain’t that serious, so it’s not worth all that, but heading into every season there is a list of head coaches who appear to be dead men walking.
From where I sit, there are a few categories of pre-fired coaches:
Cooked - These coaches, no matter how much you squint, turn your head or do mental gymnastics, you just can’t seem to see enough winnable games on their upcoming schedule.
Almost Cooked - The coaches in this category are sweating bullets and can hear the reaper knocking on the door.
Might Be Cooked - Coin flip games make or break football seasons, and with this group, if the ball bounces the right way, maybe they can eke out enough wins to stave off the college football reaper.
The “I’m Not Saying, I’m Just Saying” Group - This is your hot take group. The coaches and scenarios that you fire off to your group chat hoping to plant the seed of something going wrong down the line.
Let’s take a look at my list of coaches who might be updating their LinkedIn profiles in the next few months.
Sam Pittman - Arkansas (Cooked)
Poor Pitboss. Pittman seems like a lovely guy and wholeheartedly someone that you’d enjoy drinking a beer with, but I just do not envision a world where he is in charge past Halloween.
In four years at the helm in Fayetteville, Pittman is 23-25 and just has not shown enough signs of progress. Last year, the Razorbacks were woeful. Couldn’t tackle, couldn’t score, couldn’t avoid losing a 7-3 home game to an equally awful Mississippi State team. Oh, and don’t forget that they might’ve had a mutiny on offense. The offensive players appeared to dislike OC Dan Enos so much that they tanked part of the season to get him fired. Not good.
All of the above is bad enough, but when you add in the fact that Arkansas mega-booster and Tyson chicken tycoon John H. Tyson managed to get his guy, former disgraced Arkansas head coach Bobby Petrino, slotted into the OC role…well, let’s just say you don’t need to be a genius to guess what’s coming next.
In its first six games, Arkansas has road games at Oklahoma State and Auburn, a neutral site matchup against Texas A&M and a home game against Tennessee. That feels like four losses.
Keep an eye out for the Tennessee game on October 5 and the Ole Miss game on November 2. Both games come before a bye week, which we know is oftentimes a prime time to fire a coach and try something new.
Dave Aranda - Baylor (Almost Cooked)
Nothing felt like a bigger indictment on Dave Aranda than the Baylor Bears’ first game last season.
On the opposite sideline from Aranda was first-time head coach GJ Kinne, leading Texas State out of the tunnel for his first game at the helm. Aranda, however, was three years into a project and needed to, at the bare minimum, take care of business at home. Forty-two points later, Baylor took an embarrassing loss on the chin, a sign of what would come for the rest of the season.
After a disappointing 3-9 season in 2023, Aranda’s seat is pretty dang hot right now.
Baylor’s 2024 schedule isn’t brutal but is filled with plenty of potential landmines, as is almost every schedule for teams in the Big 12 Slot Machine Conference. First-half games on the road at Utah, at Colorado and at Iowa State will be huge. If Baylor can steal one or more of those, Aranda might be able to steer the Bears to respectability and a bowl game.
Speaking of GJ Kinne, if the Bears do get rid of Aranda, I suspect Kinne will be the first call.
Billy Napier - Florida (Almost Cooked)
I’ve already written a lot about Florida and the Gators’ brutal 2024 schedule, so I won’t harp too much on it here. But yeah, it’s going to be tough sledding for Napier to survive this.
College football moves fast and the SEC moves faster. Napier is Year 3 into his project, and if last season was any indication of what this is supposed to look like, well, it’s just not good.
Florida appeared incredibly disorganized and incompatible last year. Things can change a lot in a year, but I need to see it to believe it.
Napier’s only saving grace might be the emergence of freshman quarterback DJ Lagway. All signs point to Napier being a big reason Lagway went to Gainesville. I suppose there is a world where Lagway lights it up and the Gators do just enough to kick the can down the road to 2025. We shall see.
Will Hall - Southern Miss (Almost Cooked)
I was very surprised that Will Hall wasn’t fired after last season, so I certainly don’t expect him to make it to 2025.
Southern Miss has had a pretty rough go of things pre-Will Hall and he just hasn’t been able to consistently reverse course. The Golden Eagles had a nice seven-win season in 2022, but with a pair of three-win campaigns already on his resume, I imagine Hall’s leash will be pretty short.
At a quick glance, I just don’t see a ton of wins on this schedule. Early games against Kentucky and South Florida will not help the cause. I suspect this job could open up before October.
Stan Drayton - Temple (Cooked)
Fresh off back-to-back three-win seasons, the end feels near for Drayton at Temple.
In 2023, the Owls were woefully incompetent on offense and were just a really hard watch overall. Right now, there appears to be no discernable identity or path for growth.
This job feels certain to open up later this year.
Sonny Cumbie - Louisiana Tech (Almost Cooked)
Sonny Cumbie and Louisiana Tech are the couple on the double date that are a walking breakup.
The 2023 season was a disaster for Cumbie and the Bulldogs. Things got so nasty Cumbie revoked media access to a reporter in front of the team because Cumbie felt the media coverage was “too negative”. Yikes.
I was pretty surprised Cumbie survived last season. Word on the street is that LaTech is broke, and that’s been the driving force in Cumbie keeping his job. If things go sour again in August and September, I imagine LaTech will rummage in the couch cushions and muster up enough money to relieve Cumbie of his duties.
Clark Lea - Vanderbilt, Kelani Sataki - BYU (Might Be Cooked)
Clark Lea and Kelani Sataki have remarkably difficult jobs.
Both Lea and Sataki are smart guys and appeared to be good hires at the time of their appointments. But for one reason or another, things just haven’t taken off for either of them.
Lea might have the longest leash in all of college football. He took a bold approach to building a program by hiring a GM of Football and modeling the Commodores program to that of an NFL team. It sounded great in theory.
In practice, he and the Commodores haven’t made the necessary progress to justify sticking to the plan. Perhaps that changes in 2024, but in a loaded conference, it feels very difficult to see a road to success for Vandy right now.
BYU has gotten lost in the shuffle a bit in the new Big 12. Last year, the Cougars lost five straight to end the year, missing a bowl game in the process. The vibes weren’t great and the team looked lost in a new league.
I need to see something to believe something. BYU feels stuck in college football purgatory.
Lincoln Riley - USC, Brian Kelly - LSU (I’m Not Saying, I’m Just Saying)
At the time of writing, neither Riley nor Kelly has lived up to the hype in Los Angeles or Baton Rouge. Pressure is mounting on both head coaches to show some national title promise. If USC and LSU don’t take strong steps forward in 2024, we can’t rule anything out.
For the record, I think Lincoln Riley might be in slightly more danger of losing his job. But truthfully, I doubt either of them get fired this season unless something goes horribly wrong.
Keep an eye on both of these jobs in 2025, though. These might be two of the hotter seats on the market come next year.