2024 CFB What Ifs: What if Notre Dame blocks NIU's field goal and goes undefeated?
A look back at the game that altered Notre Dame's season...possibly for the better.
College football is a game of inches, split-second decisions and unpredictable twists that can alter the trajectory of an entire season. In this new offseason series, What Ifs, I’ll dive into the sliding door moments of the 2024 college football season—the plays, calls and decisions that could’ve changed everything.
I’ll explore how the alternate outcomes might have reshaped the College Football Playoff picture, conference standings, Heisman race and more.
What might have been? Let’s find out.
With 36 seconds remaining in a September 7th matchup against fifth-ranked Notre Dame, Northern Illinois was on the verge of doing the unthinkable.
For the previous 59 minutes and 64 seconds, the David from nearby Dekalb, Illinois had Goliath on the ropes. The Huskies had scratched, clawed and blocked a field goal just to be in this position. Every stone had to matter in this fight; up to that point, it had.
Late in the first quarter, the Huskies launched the first stone with an 83-yard Ethan Hampton to Antario Brown connection that resulted in a touchdown to tie the game at 7-7.
Three minutes and change later, kicker Kanon Woodill booted a 42-yarder through the uprights to give the Huskies a three-point lead. Before the end of the first half, the Huskies made another dent in Goliaht’s armor, this time when bruising defensive lineman Cade Haberman skied to block a Fighting Irish field goal attempt as time expired.
Woodill knocked down another field goal in the third quarter, but soon after, Notre Dame’s dynamite running back Jeremiyah Love found paydirt to give the Fighting Irish the slimmest of one-point leads.
This is how dreams are squashed in college football.
Midway through the fourth quarter, Notre Dame appeared to be in control. The defense was getting stops, and the Fighting Irish only needed one more scoring drive to more than likely put the fight to bed.
With 6:04 left on the game clock, however, Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard underthrew a pass downfield and it was picked off by Huskies’ defender Amariyun Knighten. Suddenly the Huskies had life.
What came next will live in infamy.
Woodill struck for the third time on the day, this time for the biggest kick of his career. His perfectly-struck 35-yarder sailed through the uprights to cap a hard-fought 11-play, 31-yard drive that ate up 5:24 of game clock.
The kick sent the Northern Illinois sideline into a dizzy, and the Notre Dame faithful into depression.
Moments later, in a last-gasp attempt to salvage this game, and quite possibly the 2024 season, Notre Dame kicker Mitch Jeter attempted a long-shot, 62-yard attempt, only for Haberman to block it again, officially landing the blow that killed the giant.
What if Notre Dame blocked NIU’s kick and went undefeated?
It’s hard to say for certain, but if Notre Dame had blocked NIU’s last-second field goal and stayed undefeated throughout the regular season, 2024 would’ve felt a little different for the Fighting Irish.
First and foremost, there would’ve been no debate on whether Notre Dame truly belonged with the nation’s elite. It might be hard to remember considering how well things have turned out post-Northern Illinois, but for at least a month and a half after the loss, Notre Dame’s legitimacy was being debated.
Notre Dame deserves a lot of credit for shutting down the debate, though. They quietly put together a really dominant run after NIU, even if it was against an easier schedule compared to some teams.
Secondly, I think Notre Dame likely would’ve received the fifth seed instead of the seventh seed in the College Football Playoff. The top four seeds, as the playoff format is currently constructed, are reserved for conference champions, so fifth is as high as Notre Dame could’ve climbed. Would a 12-0 Notre Dame team have received a better seed than a two-loss Texas team? I think so. Would Notre Dame have gone on the postseason run it did even with a different path? No one can say for certain.
I also can’t help but wonder if Notre Dame would’ve been a trendier national title pick had the Fighting Irish not lost to a mid-level MAC team. Despite not always being the most aesthetically pleasing to watch (primarily on offense), Notre Dame exhibited the hallmarks of a really good to great team.
The Fighting Irish had a dominant defense, with dudes littered across the defensive line and secondary. They had a wildly impressive special teams unit and did some really creative things with that group. And despite the warts, the offense was effective enough! And that’s the important part. Riley Leonard was never going to be Joe Burrow, but when called upon he made some nice throws and was always a threat running the ball.
How does that field goal impact Notre Dame in 2024 and beyond?
Outside of College Football Playoff seeding and perception, I’m not sure the field goal and upset did a ton to damper Notre Dame’s larger goals for the 2024 season.
At the time of the loss, head coach Marcus Freeman took a lot of the blame and questions were asked about his growth (or lack thereof) as a young head coach. I’d say he did a nice job of putting those worries to bed.
I think one thing most people don't consider is that an 11-1 Notre Dame with the loss to NIU was much better set up to make a deep run than a 12-0 Notre Dame team.
Marcus Freeman and Thomas Hammock (NIU's coach) had a lengthy discussion after the upset about what allowed NIU to pull it off. Freeman, to his credit, was open and listened. He used the adversity to get his team better which ultimately led to them being a buzzsaw down the stretch and making a run to the National Championship game. Without the NIU loss, I don't know if Freeman and company make those necessary changes. Plus, in the playoff era, an early loss is better than a late loss. Who knows if some other team would stumble on the NIU formula and pull of an upset down the line?
One of the trade-offs around this new expanded College Football Playoff is that the "what-ifs" are now not necessarily as much cases where a team didn't do something and missed the playoff, but cases where a team overcame something to make a run because there was more margin for error to get into the playoff. Ohio State and Notre Dame both would have seen their playoff chances ruined by losses that, in the past, would be rued forever as "what-ifs". Instead, now the what-if is a question of whether they would have gone as far as they did without the adversity as a reality check. Very different from the what-ifs of past seasons.