2024 CFB What Ifs: What if Boise State pulled off the upset against Oregon?
The Broncos took 2024's most dominant regular season team to the absolute brink...and were just a few plays away from a season-altering upset.
College football is a game of inches, split-second decisions and unpredictable twists that can alter the trajectory of an entire season. In this new offseason series, What Ifs, I’ll dive into the sliding door moments of the 2024 college football season—the plays, calls and decisions that could’ve changed everything.
I’ll explore how the alternate outcomes might have reshaped the College Football Playoff picture, conference standings, Heisman race and more.
What might have been? Let’s find out.
Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty broke onto the college football scene with a 267-yard, six-touchdown performance in a Week 1 victory over Georgia Southern.
Seven days later, he and the Broncos took college’s football’s most dominant regular season team to the absolute brink.
Up 34-27 early in the fourth quarter, the 18.5-point underdogs from 445 miles to the east were going toe-to-toe with B1G-bad Oregon. The defense had Ducks’ quarterback Dillon Gabriel guessing. Jeanty, not yet a household name, had just scored his third touchdown of the game and ninth in seven days. And with every passing second, the home crowd grew more weary of an upset.
But things move fast in college football, and so too did the tenor of the game.
Oregon kick returner Noah Whittington took the impending kickoff 100 yards for a touchdown, breathing life into an otherwise deflated Oregon team.
Then the Boise State offense suddenly went ice cold. Two drives, nine plays and 12 yards later, the Broncos came up empty and were forced to rely on their defense to force overtime.
Oregon got one last bite at the apple and made it count. Dan Lanning’s bunch orchestrated an 11-play, 46-yard drive and capped off the game with a 24-yard Atticus Sappington field goal as time expired to escape with a 37-34 victory.
What if Boise State pulled off the upset against Oregon?
It’s difficult to say for certain, but if Boise State had held on against No. 7 Oregon, the perception of both teams would’ve felt a lot different.
Even in the loss, Boise State earned a certain level of cache among media members and national pundits for hanging with a team projected to compete for a Big 10 title. But had the Broncos actually pulled the upset, I think Boise State would’ve gotten compared to and talked about in the same way as some of the nation’s other elite teams.
I also think notching that win against Oregon, rightly or wrongly, would’ve done a world of good for Jeanty’s Heisman Trophy campaign. Jeanty came in second place behind Colorado’s Travis Hunter, and it was already an insanely close race. But I think adding a statement win, along with his 192-yard, three-touchdown performance would’ve been another feather in his Heisman Trophy race cap.
How does a flip in result impact Oregon?
Oregon is looked at pretty differently. Those early-season struggles were largely left in the rearview mirror after the Ducks got right. But if Oregon had actually lost at home to an 18.5-point underdog, every other result would’ve mattered that much more.
If Oregon loses to Boise State, even if it wins out the rest of the way as it did, the Ducks likely aren’t the number-one seed in the College Football Playoff. And that would’ve had its own cascading effect on seeding, playoff matchups, etc.
How does coming up short impact Boise State in 2024 and beyond?
I’m not sure that the loss to Oregon has a huge impact on Boise State beyond 2024, outside of the potential Heisman Trophy implications for Jeanty. It would’ve been cool to see him win it. And perhaps the Oregon victory would’ve put him over the top…but you never know for certain.
Even with coming up against the Ducks, Boise State still had a fantastic season. The Broncos won the Mountain West, received the third overall seed in the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff and did a pretty decent job hanging with a stout Penn State team.